Today brings good news to all Indians fans. A truck has departed to spring training with lots of the Indians gear. By February 24th position players are due and on February 26th there is a first full squad workout under new manager Manny Acta.

ESPN’s Rob Neyer takes a look at some projected standings which have our favorite nine finishing in 3rd place with a 76 win season.

It is interesting in these standings that the White Sox are going to “run away” with the Central by winning 88 games. And yes, in the always close Central, 6 games is running away with it. I definitely am surprised by this because I feel the Twins have the best roster in the Central and should be the clear favorites.

The Indians are projected to finish 3rd with 76 victories, slightly ahead of the 4th place Tigers who will win 75. A third place finish this season would not be a disappointment because the Indians best baseball is ahead of them. Finishing closer to Kansas City/the cellar than the top would certainly not be a fun season.

The projections of CHONE seem better to me as the Indians are projected as a .500 team, which is quite a jump from 65-97 and the Twins are indeed the division winners.

Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes a nice piece on how GM Mark Shapiro has basically sat on his hand all winter and the only 25 man roster player added was backup C Mike Redmond. Shapiro is taking a complete opposite approach as the Seattle Mariners and is counting on internal development to spur a gain in the standings. The Indians are expecting growth internally and cheaply. Seattle, another smaller market team, is hoping to rise in the standings by growing from outside the organization (other than the Felix extension) and expensively.

The philosophy Shapiro has taken certainly reflects on the direction the organization is taking as all of the numerous young players gained in trades need to eventually developed and gain experience and an opportunity in Cleveland. The team has little incentive to sign veterans to multi-year deals for millions of dollars to hold the fort down until the high ranking minor leaguers continue to blossom.

With spring training finally on the horizon, people across the nation are once again gaining baseball fever (well not that  many, yet) and many publications and dot com sites are releasing top prospect lists that generate that joy in fans.

I mean, how awesome is it when a baseball fan sees for the first time  a few spring training pictures or videos with their favorite players in uniform?

Well, we are just a few weeks from that point.

Much has changed in the Tribe landscape in the past year and a half since all of the trades, which have been discussed at length many times already, began.

The reshaping of our farm system has been dramatic and while one can never truly feel safe just because there are supposed “reinforcements” in the minors it is a nice feeling to know that there finally a young bunch of players who are growing together.

Unlike the early 1990’s, when the system basically only was able to bring in mainly homegrown bats the job GM Mark Shapiro has done tearing down the big league team and bringing the farm system back to respectability has been nice.

Here is a great look at how some of the current top Indians far based on ESPN.com’s Keith Law’s 2010 MLB Prospect Rankings. Law does a great job going in detail describing his top 100, so I won’t. And I encourage everyone to check his list out.

3. Carlos Santana, C

We all know that acquiring Santana in the Casey Blake deal is one of the potentially top trades of the decade as he has risen to the 3rd overall prospect spot behind only OF Jason Heyward (Atlanta) and P Stephen Strasburg (Washington).

Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch — a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm.

I’ll leave the gushing over Santana to Law, but Tribe fans should not take that sentence above lightly. Victor is probably the most well liked and well respected Indians on the current era.

26. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B

With Jhonny Peralta’s future in Cleveland near its closure, the countdown to Lonnie in Cleveland is coming. Finally, a first round draft pick by the team that has a chance to live up to that billing.

Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander’s swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009.

51. Hector Rondon, RHP

Finally the Indians look to be developing a stud right handed starter (unless Fausto revives himself) that has a great chance to become a winner because of his control and command that is unusually good for his age.

His control is superb — he’s walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He’s shown that even on nights when he doesn’t have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball.

How refreshing is it for Indians fans to see a young pitcher come up through the system who doesn’t walk batters as often as they breathe? Basically, due to Fausto Carmona, I now have a small bias against all young Cleveland pitchers that they will come to the bigs with phenomenal stuff and yet have their inability to limit walks be their downfall. Maybe Rondon can become the antidote to this developing bias, but he needs to get up and show me a lot before it is gone.

71. Michael Brantley, OF

As my homeland is right in the heart of Twins Territory, I see a lot of Denard Span. And I couldn’t be much more impressed by everything the guy does. My best case scenario for Brantley is Span. Denard is a tough leadoff hitter who always seemingly works full counts and is the last guy other than Joe Mauer that I want to bat for Minnesota at the end of a game. I have a ton of respect for the way Span works. Brantley can do the exact same thing for us as he hopefully will bump Grady Sizemore out of the leadoff spot, and maybe centerfield (actually, not happening) if the outfield defense struggles.

Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. (Span, anyone?) He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career.

The Indians have lacked a player as dynamic as Brantley who can change games with his legs in quite awhile and as long as he can start at least knocking a decent amount of doubles and triples he should be a good outfielder for a long time in Cleveland.

100. Nick Hagadone, LHP

The southpaw is one of the most intriguing prospects in the system because he has not really been unleashed since his Tommy John surgery. He is being projected as a bullpen guy now with his upper 90’s fastball and biting slider and his ability to slam the door on lefties.

He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he’s been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors.

All that sure sounds like an arm I’d want on my team, but time will tell if he can hold up and fulfill his potential.

This group of players is just a start to the vast array of talent on the Indians radar and after they graduate from the prospect ranks the Indians will actually have many players behind them who can step up and be just as bright as these players are coming into 2010.

The master plan of Mark Shapiro this winter, due to budget constraints, has been to stockpile past their prime non-impact players. IF Brian Bixler, C Mike Redmond, IF Mark Grudzielanek and OF’s Shelley Duncan and Austin Kearns are the aforementioned group.

While non of these players is in the long term plans of the Tribe they each are on low risk deals that are essentially all transitions until the teams prospects rise into the fold.

With Luis Valbuena and Asdrubal Cabrera likely to get the majority of the at bats in the middle infield, Bixler and Grudzielanek were basically added as AAAA depth or before recently acquired Jason Donald is deemed ready to return from his injuries.

Redmond was added as the Tribe wanted to acquire a veteran catcher to help all of the young (and new to the roster) catchers that the team currently has. He has done a nice job recently as Joe Mauer’s backup and it is hoped that he and Sandy Alomar Jr. can benefit all of the young catching talent the Indians have. The move to hire Alomar and sign Redmond were certainly done in order to better ensure a smooth transition and long successful MLB career for the Indians crown jewel, C Carlos Santana.

Kearns and Duncan were added to the fold because they can cover up left field until either Michael Brantley is ready to become the next Kenny Lofton or Matt LaPorta is given the job.

While none of these acquisitions turned any heads in the baseball world, they really should not in any way hurt the team. We all have a family relative or somebody we know who can come up and talk to us for a half hour non stop and then after we realize that they didn’t tell us anything the whole time.

Well, Shapiro basically made a bunch of moves this winter but hasn’t really done anything.

In closing, I urge everyone to take a glance at a fantastic piece by a Cincinnati Reds fan which rates every Farm System in MLB. You will like who comes up #1.

Before you write off Jake Westbrook for good, make sure that it sticks. The former Tribe workhorse is on the mend, again, and rearing to get back on the hill to lead the Indian rotation in 2010.

From 2004-2006 Jake was as consistent and durable as any middle of the rotation starter in all of baseball. He recorded 44 wins and logged over 210 innings each season.  His FIP’s respectively were 4.04, 3.96 and 3.88. His heavy sinker induced a 62%, 61% and 60% ground ball rate in the span.

And now, with much new about the franchise since the last time he was a mainstay in the rotation he is a clear leader amongst a young rotation full of inexperienced pitchers.

Things unraveled due to injury early in 2008 and he has not taken the bump since May of that year. Since signing a 3 year/$33 million extension before the 2008 campaign he has recorded just 34.2 big league innings and accumulated a single victory. From 2007-2009 he had just 7 wins and pitched less than 200 innings total. Those numbers pail in comparison to the stretch previous to that.

After finally earning the respect of the industry as a workhorse and a “winner” he has now been forgotten about, which to be honest is not a surprise since he hasn’t done anything since the 07 postseason.

Jake tried to make a comeback last season with a rehab stint in the minors but that did not go well and he missed all of 2009. This winter he just finished another stint of rehab in Puerto Rico and the results are encouraging but that needs to be taken with caution. New skipper Manny Acta made a trip to watch Jake throw and had this to say about what he witnessed:

“I really liked what I saw from Jake in PR,” Acta said in an e-mail to The Associated Press. “His pitching coach, Ricky Bones, was nice enough to allow me to see Jake’s warmup before the game. He threw free and easy with very good command of all of his pitches, to me that’s a good sign of being pain-free.

“He had his usual good sink and induced plenty of groundballs, after the game I could tell by his face expression that he was happy with the way things were going. And so was I.”

With nearly an entirely different core than the last time he was active, Westbrook will be looking to win with a different group in what will almost certainly be his last year in Cleveland in 2010. This season will very likely be a difficult one as he battles back and works through his first full season since 2006. He is bound to have a lot of soreness and struggle to find his stuff at times because of the lay off.

Marcel and CHONE project him to go 3-4 and 4-4 with a 4.63 and 4.52 FIP in 63 and 78 innings respectively.

Those numbers sound very disappointing to Indians fans and it would be frustrating to get a Carl Pavano-esque performance from Westbrook in his first big contract. Of course, both situations are different but Jake’s overall numbers that matter most (innings and games started) would leave a lot to be desired over the $33 million deal if that occurs.

It is unlikely that 37 will be as reliable as he was earlier in his career but at least he can benefit the team by giving them something when healthy.

Just think about how long it has been since Westbrook was a key member of the rotation. That day was Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS. Not much has been constant about the organization since that day and it seems like an eternity ago.

The long road to recovery for Westbrook is nearly over and here’s to hoping he ends it on a high note.

After watching the Texas-Alabama game, which now will forever be remembered as “Alabama won the 2010 National Championship but… Game” all sports teams around the country are silly if they don’t learn from Texas’ mistake. Actually it might not have been as much of a mistake as a developmental issue.

Rather than have at least an experienced older player on the roster who might not be talented but at least wouldn’t bat an eye in the face of a storm of Alabama defenders would have been much more shrewd than allowing a true freshman to man the position.

Sure, Gilbert is projected to be a star someday but at this point he was not prepared.

Having organizational or team depth and preparing those players as if they were starters is something all coaches around the country are going to try and do more now that they witnessed the unfortunate situation that played out for the Longhorns.

While many think the Indians have too much young pitching depth in the rotation and pen, I feel that is impossible. The depth doesn’t necessarily blow me away since the depth is that of more or less borderline big league arms.

The Cleveland Indians can say they were 65-97 in 2009 but Grady Sizemore was injured for a large portion of the year. They can say they finished 65-97 and Jake Westbrook was out all year. They can say they were 65-97 and Travis Hafner couldn’t stay in the lineup and the bullpen faltered.

But all of those things don’t matter. The record 65-97 speaks for itself and maybe with a better lack of organizational talent and depth rising through the organization any holes that do get exposed in the Indians team can be filled internally by players who are ready to contribute instead of throwing players into the mix too early.

Even though it was a football game, a cruel lesson was learned last night.

With a short break from a so far successful (well, mostly) campaign for the Cobbers and  Linear Algebra and Differential Equations behind me there is ample time to dissect a key to some of the success and pitfalls of the pitching in the AL Central. And with the weather snowing nearly all of North Dakota in right now my focus turns back to My Favorite Nine.

The Detroit Tigers were the only team in the AL Central in 2009 whose defenders and pitchers had an unwritten pact which read something along the lines of “you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.”

The impact of defense on pitching has been widely underrated and unaccepted by nearly all of the baseball landscape until recent years in which Ultimate Zone Rating has allowed us to measure not just how well or poorly a pitcher is but how the defense behind him factors into the public’s opinion of the hurler.

UZR (definition from Fan Graphs) is a stat geek measurement which allows us to determine the real value of a pitcher and more importantly each individual defender who plays the field behind him. For baseball’s eternity the ERA stat has completely dominated the overall view of how every pitcher to throw in a big league game is rated.

There are many flaws of the ERA statistic and this doesn’t allow us to accurately judge a pitcher. First off ERA is extremely defensive dependent and that does not help a pitcher if his defense has difficulty turning batted balls into outs. Also, ERA is based on many factors a pitcher cannot control such as the players in the field or size of the alleys or amount of foul territory and this makes it a flawed statistic.

While it is extremely deceiving in the end the top pitchers almost always end up having the best ERA’s. And, the terrible pitchers end up having the worst ERA’s. Over time ERA, while not extremely accurate, is able to show us who the best pitchers are. For example, take a look at Pedro Martinez’s ERA’s and FIP’s (more on this later) from the late 1999-2003 period. There certainly were differences in each statistic but in the end both of them were extremely low and either could technically have been used to show that he was by far the most dominant pitcher of that era.

The Seattle Mariners, led by former Indian OF Frankin Gutierrez, easily outdistanced the rest of MLB for the highest UZR with an 85.5. Rouding out the top 5 were the Rays, Reds, Giants and Tigers, who measured 43.6. Seeing that Detroit rated 5th with just half the score of the Mariners shows how truly fantastic Seattle was in the field last season.

The rest of the AL Central did not fare so hot. Cleveland (26th, -33.5), Chicago (27th, -35.6), Minnesota (28th, 37.3) and Kansas City (30th, -49.9) were absolutely atrocious on defense. There is no question that the fact that Minnesota trotted out such an awful defense last season held them back when they had a team who should have won the division much easier than they did. This also shows how superior Seattle was to anyone else. They were way better than Kansas City was worse, if that makes sense. Yet it still was not enough for them to take down the Angels.

Fielding Independent Pitching, developed by Tom Tango, is a stat that was developed earlier in the decade which focuses on things that a pitcher can control such as home runs, walks and strikeouts allowed per inning pitched. It doesn’t factor in the rest of the balls put into play because in the end whether those balls are turned into outs depends on the skill of the defensive players.

When a staff has a superior defense it is much easier for them to have mistakes and over a long season the defense will cover up on many balls put in play that a shoddy defense such as any of those bottom Central teams would not make a good play on. A good defensive team therefore will often have pitchers who have better ERA’s than FIP’s because their defense was superior which allowed them to get away with giving up more hits, since a better percentage of the balls put into play were turned into outs.

On the other hand, many pitchers from poor teams are underrated because nearly everyone forms an opinion of a pitcher based on his ERA yet Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota and Kansas City had terrible defenses last year which pretty much made most of the pitchers from those teams seem to the untrained eye much worse than they actually were.

Often times, the pitcher receives credit whether it is deserved or not based on things such as his ERA and Wins. We all know that giving credit based on those statistics is laughable because ERA depends on numerous things as mentioned and Wins factors in even more such as the offense, run support and the bullpen holding or giving up a lead.

Here is a breakdown team by team of the division and how the defense impacted the main pitchers on each team:

Detroit Tigers

Defenders (measured by UZR):

Clete Thomas, RF, 11.6 (47 starts)

Placido Polanco, 2B, 11.4 (146)

Brandon Inge, 3B, 9.4 (157)

Adam Everett, SS, 8.9 (107)

Josh Anderson + Ryan Raburn, LF, 10.8 (74)

Magglio Ordonez, RF, -2.8 (102)

These ratings show that Detroit was, on a scale from 1 to freaking amazing, off the charts defensively on the infield in 2009. Also, the outfield was solid as well and Ordonez was the only really sub par regular. With such a great infield defense, Tiger pitchers were able to generate lots of ground balls were bailed out many times by their infielders.

Justin Verlander: 36.0 GB%, 3.45 ERA, 2.80 FIP (no surprise, not a lot of GB)

Edwin Jackson: 39.1%, 3.62, 4.28

Rick Porcello: 54.2%, 3.96, 4.77 (huge benefactor, wildly overrated in 2009)

Armando Galarraga: 39.9%, 5.64, 5.47

Zach Miner: 45.1%, 4,29, 4.83

Fernando Rodney: 57.9%, 4.40, 4.56

Brandon Lyon: 47.2%, 2.86, 4.06

Ryan Perry: 41.5%, 3.79, 4.52

Overall, 10 of Detroit’s top 16 pitchers looked better (ERA) than they actually were (FIP) due to the defense which was led by Inge, Polanco and Everett on the infield. With even an average defense Detroit would not even have been in the division race in September.

Chicago White Sox

Defenders:

Jayson Nix, 2B, 4.4 (48)

Gordon Beckham, 3B, -2.0 (102)

Scott Podsednik, LF, -2.0 (67)

Josh Fields, 3B, -4.7 (47)

Chris Getz, 2B, -4.9 (100)

Carlos Quentin, LF, -15.0 (87)

Jermaine Dye, RF, -20.0 (133)

With no elite defenders it is no surprise that the White Sox struggled in 2009. When the combination of Quentin and Dye were in the corners it especially hurt to be the starting pitcher for Chicago. And, there really isn’t a lot to get excited about since the South Siders probably won’t have an elite one in 2010 either. Remember, they added stone glove 3B/OF Mark Teahan from Kansas City and that will not help one bit.

Mark Buehrle: 3.84 ERA, 4.46 FIP (is there a correlation between him working fast and the solid defense behind him?)

John Danks: 3.77, 4.59

Gavin Floyd: 4.06, 3.77

Jose Contreras: 5.42, 4.13

Clayton Richard: 4.65, 4.42

D.J. Carrasco: 3.76, 3.46

Matt Thornton: 2.74, 2.46

Octavio Dotel: 3.32, 3.88

Scott Linebrink: 4.66, 4.61

Jake Peavy: 1.35, 2.85

Overall, just 6 of the 10 top White Sox pitchers (including Peavy) actually looked worse than they pitched. That might actually mean things could tick downward even more next year unless they get defensive help somewhere in the outfield. And they are kidding themselves if they think Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones and Alex Rios (why did they take on all that money?!?!?) are going to patch things up.

Minnesota Twins

Defenders:

Joe Crede, 3B, 12.5 (84)

Carlos Gomez, CF, 7.3 (86)

Denard Span, LF, 6.0 (45)

Nick Punto, 2B, 3.3 (58)

Span, CF, -3.3 (75)

Matt Tolbert, 2B, -3.4 (31)

Jason Kubel, RF, -4.8 (28)

Brendan Harris, 3B, -5.0 (34)

Orlando Cabrera, SS, -6.2 (57)

Alexi Casilla, 2B, -9.6 (64)

Delmon Young, LF, -16.4 (93)

Michael Cuddyer, RF, -16.9 (112)

One of the biggest myths in baseball is that the Twins win with defense and that they are one of the top defensive teams in MLB. They are a team full of fly ball pitchers and they started Young 93 times, Span 75 times and Cuddyer 112 times at positions they cannot play close to average at defensively. The middle infield and outfield were as bad as any in baseball in 2009. In 2010 they hands down will have the worst outfield defense in baseball as they let Gomez go and are going with Young in LF, Span in CF and Cuddyer in RF with Kubel filling in at the corners when need be. They are going to need to really mash next year.

Scott Baker: 47.1 FB%, 4.37 ERA, 4.08 FIP

Nick Blackburn: 36.5%, 4.03, 4.37

Francisco Liriano: 41.2%, 5.80, 4.87

Glen Perkins: 38.7%, 5.89, 4.66

Kevin Slowey: 48.0%, 4.86, 4.26

Brian Duensing: 39.8%, 3.64, 4.13

Carl Pavano: 38.9%, 4.64, 3.50

Joe Nathan: 47.1%, 2.10, 2.88

R.A. Dickey: 34.9%, 4.62, 4.99

Matt Guerrier: 39.7%, 2.36, 4.35

Anthony Swarzak: 44.5%, 6.25, 5.71

Jose Mijares: 50.6%, 2.34, 4.01

With this collection of arms (14/24 look worse than they really are) who don’t keep the ball on the ground much it should be pretty interesting to see the Twins outfield run after fly balls in 2010. I don’t see how that outfield defense will work out. But, I guess they must know something I don’t. I still certainly expect to see Minnesota win the division by 5-7 games, but the defense won’t be the reason why.

Kansas City Royals

Defenders:

David DeJesus, LF, 14.9 (138)

Coco Crisp, CF, 4.5 (49)

Mike Aviles, SS, -2.7 (33)

Willie Bloomquist, SS, -3.4 (29)

Mark Teahan, RF, -4.7 (31)

Billy Butler, 1B, -6.7 (143)

Teahan, 3B, -6.9, (99)

Alberto Callaspo, 2B, -7.3 (142)

Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, -13.0 (70)

Jose Guillen, RF, -16.0 (64)

There really is little here other than DeJesus (since Crisp is already gone) that is a positive defensive player. I’m not sure if the Royals will ever figure things out and I don’t really care. They are pretty much irrelevant so I’m not going to analyze them too much.

Zack Greinke: 2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP (stud no matter who is playing behind him)

Brian Bannister: 4.73, 4.14

Luke Hochevar: 6.55, 4.84

Gil Meche: 5.09, 4.76

Kyle Davies: 5.27, 5.31

Rob Tejada: 3.54, 3.60

Jamey Wright: 4.33, 4.83

Bruce Chen: 5.78, 5.55

Sidney Ponson: 7.36, 4.72 (needs more plays behind him)

Juan Cruz: 5.72, 4.92

Again, not much to say about the Royals. Due to porous defense 6 of their 10 pitchers suffered because nobody could help them out defensively.

And finally,

Cleveland Indians

Defenders:

Ryan Garko, 1B, 4.4 (47)

Mark DeRosa, 3B, -3.7 (41)

Jhonny Peralta, 3B, -3.7 (102)

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, -4.3 (99)

Ben Francisco, CF, -4.9 (31)

Luis Valbuena, 2B, -5.1 (75)

Michael Brantley, CF, -7.3 (19)

Ben Francisco, LF, -7.9 (43)

A few things stand out about these numbers. Ryan Garko, never one to be thought of as a solid defender was the best we had until he left town. Ben Francisco, the so called “defensive thrown in” in the Cliff Lee trade was about as far from a defensive ace as one can be. Let’s hope Brantley’s struggles are because he was adjusting to center (he is a natural left fielder) and simply adjusting from AAA to Cleveland.  Also, Asdrubal Cabrera really didn’t play any better defensively at short than Peralta did and the young, quick Cabrera-Valbuena duo that looks good really wasn’t in 2009.

Joe Smith: 3.44 ERA, 4.01 FIP

Chris Perez: 4.32, 4.12

Kerry Wood: 4.25, 4.15

Tony Sipp: 2.93, 4.20

Jess Todd: 7.40, 4.26

Justin Masterson: 4.55, 4.35

Aaron Laffey: 4.44, 4.54

David Huff: 5.61, 4.69

Jeremy Sowers: 5.25, 4.77

Rafael Perez: 7.31, 4.81

Jensen Lewis: 4.61, 5.18

Fausto Carmona: 6.32, 5.36 (who is least accurate, Derek Anderson, Shaq on free throws or Carmona?)

Anthony Reyes: 6.57, 5.60

Carlos Carrasco: 8.87, 7.08

All of these players are potentially options in Cleveland in 2010 and 10 of the 14 looked worse than they actually were in 2009. If the Indians had defenders such as Inge, Polanco and Everett a few of these guys would look like rising stars. None of these pitchers has shown enough to be considered a sure lock for a long term rotation job, things would look much brighter for them all if the defense was better.

Whether it is fair or not for these pitchers personally, the difference between them having a good and bad defense can end up costing that pitcher millions of dollars in contract money during their career.

Overall, with all of the Central teams middling in defensive mediocrity at best and Detroit slipping down to the pack with Polanco gone the division will be won with hitting and who can avoid the most defensive mistakes in 2010.

Even though the Twins, Royals, White Sox and Tribe had difficulty catching the ball in 2009 it is safe to say Braylon Edwards had more trouble in that department.

With casual baseball followers earned run average functions much like batting average does for hitters. The typical fan notices a .310 average or a 3.22 ERA and immediately believes that the player boasting those numbers is a star.

The real question lies in how the player attained those numbers. A .310 average with few walks and extra base hits is much less valuable than a .270 hitter with tons of walks and many extra base hits. The same can be said for pitchers. A pitcher with a 3.20 ERA and 3.90 FIP is less valuable than a pitcher with a 3.90 ERA and 3.20 FIP even though to the untrained eye this may be difficult to swallow.

In a related note, is a player more valuable who scores 20 points on 10-24 shooting or a player who gets 14 on 7-9 shooting? I’d take the 7-9 player but most people only look at the “money” stats such as points, home runs or touchdowns.

While OPS is finally becoming a mainstream baseball stat, as it should be, FIP has yet to capture the eyes of American baseball fans. OPS is a much more telling way to measure the total value of the batter while he is in the box and FIP is one that measures the pitcher on the bump given only factors he can control.

It’s time the defense’s from the Indians, White Sox, Twins and Royals started scratching the backs of the hurlers they play behind.

1. Grady Sizemore returns to form and becomes a member of the 40-40 club in 2010.

2. The Indians run through only 20 pitchers next season.

3. A few members of the Laffey, Masterson, Carmona, Carrasco, Rondon, Huff group become legitimate rotation cornerstones by the end of the year.

4. Chris Perez saves 30 games after Kerry Wood and his massive contract are shipped out.

5. He never actually meets Niuman Romero.

6. Matt LaPorta makes the All-Star team.

7. Even as a rookie, the crown fits the head of C Carlos Santana and he wears it a la Joe Mauer.

8. Progressive Field actually shows some life and fills up instead of seeming like it is “Buy A Ticket Get A Row To Yourself Night” every game.

9. Jhonny Peralta drops his former motto “caring is like a broken pencil, there is no point.” He adopts “hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard” and Acta becomes his role model.

10. The Giants, sensing that Travis Hafner’s shoulder is finally healthy, ship two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to Cleveland for the Artist Formerly Known as Pronk. Lincecum promptly makes it three by taking the award in the AL.

Due to the busy lifestyle of being a college basketball player in addition to studying math it has been a hectic past month. With our last game before break behind us and finals week over it is about time to dive back in to some Indians baseball. In fact, I’m not the only person in the Indians circle who is making major progress on his degree. Actually, Gator4God is finished. Congrats Matt!

Many new developments have popped up lately on the Tribe’s front. Torey Lovullo has jumped ship to the Red Sox. Charles Nagy is the new Columbus pitching coach. Jamey Carroll has signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Neither Jake Westbrook nor Travis Hafner is expected to be limited in the 2010 season.

That news is something that Tribe fans should be excited about.

Westbrook is the clear favorite to be the Opening Day starter if he ends up staying healthy. While the season will likely be rough for him as he adjusts back from missing around 23 months he still will bring stability and a veteran presence to the rotation that is needed in 2010. The Indians really have no idea what young arms such as Aaron Laffey, Justin Masterson, Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, Hector Rondon and Carlos Carrasco can be next season. They know Jake Westbrook can hold the rotation together in some form when he is on the mound.

The more he is able to bring to the team next year the more settled things will be. A chaotic feeling may develop if Manny Acta has to simply throw the young guys 5-6 nights per week. If that happens he better buy a lot of Advil.

In what will be Jake’s final season in Cleveland the Indians are simply hoping to get at least some value for the $33 million dollar deal he signed prior to 2008.

Thus far they have paid him $22 million of that money and he has delivered 34.2 innings and 5 games started. That production is almost Carl Pavano New York-esque. But the thing Jake does have going for him is he is healthy after his winter ball stint and he is excited to be back on the hill.

Travis Hafner beats out the extremely frustrating Jhonny Peralta as the most disappointing Indian of the past three years. There is always something going on with his shoulder that it is just annoying to keep hearing about it. After all of the surgeries and professional rehab and strengthening programs it is about time that he is ready to bounce back and be a force in the middle of the lineup.

We have all heard before that he won’t be limited so it is hard to believe this time but honestly it has to be healthy by now. In limited duty he actually did have a solid season in 2009 with an .826 OPS. Unfortunately that doesn’t cut in when you play just 94 games and had an OPS of 1.003 in 2005 and 1.097 in 2006.

The ability of Hafner and Westbrook to reclaim their form of old is a key in whether the Indians can actually surprise some people and finish as high as 3rd (!!!?) in 2010.

Due to the massive contract each received and the minimal production from them since signing the franchise has been forced to completely rebuild and been handcuffed.

The unloading of players last season can be linked to the struggles of these two because they ate up so much money that the team could simply not compete at their current payroll and thus did not have enough money to keep its veteran players and we all know how that shaped up.

In the upcoming season they need to at least justify some of the money they are getting because since they haven’t it has forced the franchise to do things nobody wanted to do and now the organization is at a crossroads.

The unknown can be a scary thing. When scanning the Indians roster it is hard to find much to rely on.

After shipping Kelly Shoppach to warmer places (a possible contender/Florida) the potential 2010 Indians roster is beginning to take shape. There is little surprise that with new manager Manny Acta leading the team things would be different but it makes me wonder how different the team will actually look?

With an entirely new coaching staff made up of three inside hires in hitting coach Jon Nunnally, pitching coach Tim Belcher and bullpen coach Scott Radinsky and three outside hires in bench coach Tim Tolman, third-base and infield coach Steve Smith and first-base and catching instructor Sandy Alomar Jr. it will be quite the meet and greet come February in Goodyear.

Focusing mainly on the trade of Shoppach it is not really a surprise to see him be sent out. We all know that with the Indians having so much payroll tied into Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, Jhonny Peralta and Kerry Wood in 2010 that paying Shoppach what likely will be in the $3 million dollar range was not only unnecessary but downright crazy.

Shoppach fills a need for the Rays who are itching to get back into contention with their young core. They experienced a similar drop in 2009 that the Indians did in 2007. While both franchises were expected to stay on top during their success they quickly learned that just because they had a few hot young players that it doesn’t necessarily guarantee multiple pennants.

Considering the fact that Shoppach had one of the largest platoon splits in the league with a .652 OPS against righties and a 1.045 OPS facing lefties the Indians brass made the wise decision that Shoppach does not fit into the long term plans of the team.

As he will turn early 30 next season the uses for him become less and less when the team can basically throw someone behind the dish who is much younger as in Lou Marson, 23/24 in 2010 and Carlos Santana, 24 in 2010. These players will be making close to 1/9th of what the team was going to owe Shoppach. Logically and realistically the deal then makes sense as the production of the higher paid player was most likely not going to significantly outweigh that of the younger ones.

Also, consider in the fact that there is no way Kelly could have played more than 100 games or so because of his inability to face right handed pitching it becomes even more apparent that 100 games of Kelly Shoppach for $3 million is not a wise use of the Dolan’s money.

The Indians are the league leaders in clearing out playing time over the past year for young and more importantly, cheap players. This move is yet another example in the direction the franchise is going (more Florida Marlins than Chicago White Sox.)

During the last few months of the 2009 campaign as Shoppach lost time to Wyatt Toregas, Chris Gimenez and Marson it was obvious to all that Shoppach’s days with the team were numbered. If only they had the same philosophy with overpriced (for the Indians current state) Peralta and Wood. Hafner can’t even be included in that infamous group because he is immovable.

As the Indians bid farewell to yet another player it is time that I have realized that this one doesn’t hurt. First off, he never meant much to the team anyways and his biggest role on the team was keeping Cliff Lee happy.

There is likely very little reason that anyone will even remember Kelly Shoppach in ten years. Hopefully, the memory of Carlos Santana and a monster decade by him will erase that memory rather than it being gone because Shoppach was just bad.

After his mega breakout 2007 season, the enigma that is Fausto Carmona has been one of the game’s biggest disappointments. The drop in the performance of Carmona is the leader in a long list of tumbling members of the Tribe which casued the organization to stumble into irrelevancy.

Fausto’s demise has been dissected by just about everybody and yet it really is pretty obvious to why he ended up spending a huge chunk of the 2009 season in the Minor Leagues, a la Cliff Lee 2007.

Carmona dipped from a 3.94 FIP in 2007 to 4.89 and 5.36. His Quality Start percentage dropped from 81 to 41 to 33.

He developed a poor mound presence after his strong 2007 season and in the years since his impact on the team has been increasingly negative.

Fausto on occasion still shows the stuff to be an adequate above average starting pitcher. But, he is the type of player who it is hard to ever trust when on the mound because of his battle with inconsistency. His career has been prone to stints of dominance followed by stretches where you wonder if he has ever pitched before due to an inability to lose the strike zone completely.

In 2007 his fastball was worth over 12 runs and by 2009 it dropped to costing him over 35. The drop is staggering of course but when he ends up getting behind and throwing “get it over” pitches it is going to get crushed. The ball he throws still is as filthy as ever but it just isn’t as dominant because batters are just waiting him out. His pitch count has skyrocketed and his IP/S dropped from nearly 7 in 2007 to barely 5 in 2009. His effectiveness is limited due to an inability to retire hitters in a short at bat and thus leaves the entire staff fatigued because he can’t last deep into a ballgame.

Everyone is aware that Carmona is one of the worst in the league at walking batters and he failed miserably as the long term partner at the top of the rotation with C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

The difference often between a pitcher cementing his legacy and failing is simply making adjustments. Carmona had perhaps the heaviest sinker in the game earlier on in his career yet somehow he now has lost his once nearly natural ability to garner a 3:1 GB/FB ratio.

Consider the fact that Carmona allowed just a .661 OPS in 2007 and in 2009 surrendered a .852 OPS. Pretty much nothing has went well for Carmona ever since the bug game against the Yankees in the ALDS.

For Manny Acta one of his biggest keys to success could be whether or not he finds a way to get this former budding Cy Young potential pitcher back on a positive developmental track before it is too late. There is so much natural talent and potential with Carmona that eventually he needs to put things together for the Indians. With the type of arm and pitches he does have it is frustrating watching him not dominate games when so many players with less stuff pile up the victories.

After his disappointing 2007 season Cliff Lee and former Indians coach Carl Willis worked the entire winter to invent an entirely different approach as they entered the 2008 campaign. The new workout regime, attitude and intense focus of Lee led him to winning the Cy Young and becoming the best player in the 2009 playoffs. Carmona could learn quite a bit from the now departed Lee.

Until then, Carmona will be coasting on potential and going through the motions at 95 mph towards a journeyman career.