After his mega breakout 2007 season, the enigma that is Fausto Carmona has been one of the game’s biggest disappointments. The drop in the performance of Carmona is the leader in a long list of tumbling members of the Tribe which casued the organization to stumble into irrelevancy.

Fausto’s demise has been dissected by just about everybody and yet it really is pretty obvious to why he ended up spending a huge chunk of the 2009 season in the Minor Leagues, a la Cliff Lee 2007.

Carmona dipped from a 3.94 FIP in 2007 to 4.89 and 5.36. His Quality Start percentage dropped from 81 to 41 to 33.

He developed a poor mound presence after his strong 2007 season and in the years since his impact on the team has been increasingly negative.

Fausto on occasion still shows the stuff to be an adequate above average starting pitcher. But, he is the type of player who it is hard to ever trust when on the mound because of his battle with inconsistency. His career has been prone to stints of dominance followed by stretches where you wonder if he has ever pitched before due to an inability to lose the strike zone completely.

In 2007 his fastball was worth over 12 runs and by 2009 it dropped to costing him over 35. The drop is staggering of course but when he ends up getting behind and throwing “get it over” pitches it is going to get crushed. The ball he throws still is as filthy as ever but it just isn’t as dominant because batters are just waiting him out. His pitch count has skyrocketed and his IP/S dropped from nearly 7 in 2007 to barely 5 in 2009. His effectiveness is limited due to an inability to retire hitters in a short at bat and thus leaves the entire staff fatigued because he can’t last deep into a ballgame.

Everyone is aware that Carmona is one of the worst in the league at walking batters and he failed miserably as the long term partner at the top of the rotation with C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

The difference often between a pitcher cementing his legacy and failing is simply making adjustments. Carmona had perhaps the heaviest sinker in the game earlier on in his career yet somehow he now has lost his once nearly natural ability to garner a 3:1 GB/FB ratio.

Consider the fact that Carmona allowed just a .661 OPS in 2007 and in 2009 surrendered a .852 OPS. Pretty much nothing has went well for Carmona ever since the bug game against the Yankees in the ALDS.

For Manny Acta one of his biggest keys to success could be whether or not he finds a way to get this former budding Cy Young potential pitcher back on a positive developmental track before it is too late. There is so much natural talent and potential with Carmona that eventually he needs to put things together for the Indians. With the type of arm and pitches he does have it is frustrating watching him not dominate games when so many players with less stuff pile up the victories.

After his disappointing 2007 season Cliff Lee and former Indians coach Carl Willis worked the entire winter to invent an entirely different approach as they entered the 2008 campaign. The new workout regime, attitude and intense focus of Lee led him to winning the Cy Young and becoming the best player in the 2009 playoffs. Carmona could learn quite a bit from the now departed Lee.

Until then, Carmona will be coasting on potential and going through the motions at 95 mph towards a journeyman career.

I am thankful for Grady Sizemore.

I am thankful for being in a division which is winnable every year.

I am thankful for seeing the Indians in the Fall Classic twice in my young life so far.

I am thankful that Progressive Field is one of the best parks in Major League Baseball.

I am thankful for an organization that seems to be on the right track and has a good future (at least on paper) in its cards.

I am not thankful that the list of things I’m not thankful for with the Indians is about ten times longer than this list.

As Sandy Alomar Jr. eases into his new position as the catching instructor and first base coach the move seems to be both beneficial in the Public Relations Department and on the field.

With youngsters Lou Marson, Wyatt Toregas, Kelly Shoppach, Chris Gimenez and five-star prospect Carlos Santana all aiming to earn playing time behind the dish next year Alomar has entered the fold to guide them.

The seat will likely be held warm mainly by the light hitting, high OBP Marson until Santana bursts onto the scene. Toregas at this point is basically just a filler player who can play some defense and pretty much is irrelevant. Shoppach has probably priced himself out of the organizations plans and is on his way out. Gimenez isn’t a catcher, or an every day big leaguer.

Santana is the jewel of the Indians system and was robbed from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal.

The role of former playoff and All-Star game hero Alomar Jr. will be to help Santana become even a bigger star than he was during his Indians heyday.

Alomar Jr. spent 20 seasons in the Majors, including 11 in Cleveland from 1990-2000. His father and brother also had great runs in MLB in different capacities so the Alomar name is held in high regard.

When he was given responsibility by the Mets before he came to Cleveland he created their catching program. It was something he felt proud of and helped him believe that the transformation from player to coach was complete. His philosophy includes patience and a smooth delivery of what he wants the players to do. He expects them to be the captain on the field and to be a rock solid in the fundamentals of the position.

“Mentoring is one thing, teaching is another,” Alomar said. “You try to get them to focus on the program so that they understand being a catcher at the Major League level is not an easy thing. It takes a lot of focus and hard work. I like guys to take charge.”

According to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Santana is one of the most special prospects in the game…

The Good: Santana’s bat is so special that if he was a first-base prospect, he’d still be elite. His approach is big league-ready, as he never swings at a bad pitch. As one scout put it, “When he does finally swing, special things tend to happen.” His power is plus to plus-plus to all fields, and for a player with his strength, he maintains an outstanding contact rate. He’s a solid defender with above-average arm strength.

The Bad: Santana still has a lot of work to do in the areas of catching that are difficult to measure on the stat sheet. He needs to call a better game, improve his game management, and improve his English-language skills in order to communicate better with pitchers and coaches. His release is a bit long, which makes him easier to run on. His intensity works against him at times, as his tendency to overreact to calls and stare down umps can grate, even on his own teammates.

Timetable: Santana will begin the year at Triple-A, but he should reach the majors at some point during the second half of the 2010 season. New manager Manny Acta, as well as the recently hired Sandy Alomar Jr., are both Latin American-born players who turned into leaders, and they could prove to be essential mentors for Santana.

Santana and 1B Matt LaPorta are the biggest two pieces who will be expected to replace all of the outgoing players fans hated to see leave. It is not at all a bad thing that the Indians are doing their best to surround Santana with people who love Indians baseball and can help him succeed.

While the Indians system is not packed with elite high level talent, it is jam packed at the top with impact players. After Santana there is a clear separation to the next wave of players. The ability to turn these names into players is the key to the Acta Administration. And having Alomar Jr. there to guide the supposed savior is a savvy move by the new Chief of the Tribe.

Acta is someone who is regarded as a patient manager by those in baseball circles and this does bode well for the Indians organization. He is known to let some guys play through struggles and their youth mistakes. There should be plenty of that next year as the Indians youth and inexperience will be as plentiful as presents on Christmas Day.

Alomar Jr. also holds the Indians organization close to his heart as the most special days of his career were with the team. During his last days in New York he lobbied Mets GM Omar Minaya to let Manny Acta interview him for the Indians position.

The relationship between Alomar Jr. and Santana will be key to his development as Alomar Jr. will almost be a personal coach once Carlos arrives, not to mention a mentor.

But, before we fit the crown to Mr. Santana’s head we need to realize that he needs some seasoning before we truly anoint him.

The 2009 Cleveland Indians rarely had any fight in them. When a lead was lost it was usually a foregone conclusion that the game would end in defeat.

Check out the porous numbers of games in which the Indians were trailing at the beginning on the inning mentioned:

2nd: 9-32

3rd: 16-49

4th: 14-58

5th: 11-66

6th: 13-68

7th: 10-78

8th:  8-78

9th: 5-86

The team never developed an attitude which led itself to believe that it was never out of a game. The bullpen rarely had the right heartbeat on the mound and this led to the cardinal sins of relieving to occur on a nearly nightly basis for the Tribe.

Leadoff batters were walked frequently by relievers. Also, numerous inherited runners scored and not enough were left stranded. Matt Herges, Chris Perez and Jensen Lewis did perform well in the inherited runners department but that was about it. But, in Lewis’ case he entered games far more often in less pressure situations, 30 out of his 47 games, when the Indians were already behind.

The lineup produced ten players who hit double digit home runs. Yet nobody could knock out more than twenty. The team lacked difference makers in the lineup, rotation and bullpen. And heck, even on the bench in the dugout.

It is a poor season when just one batter is worth over a victory and a half for the team. Shin-Soo Choo was worth 3.3 according to Baseball Reference.

There are very few players on the current squad who are impact players and with such a roster as depleted as the one Manny Acta inherits he needs to do something to change this.

Too many of the Indian players are just “there.” They don’t dominate games. They don’t scare other opponents. The identity of the squad is in limbo and the hope is that the youngsters can change some of this next year by bursting onto the scene, a la Asdrubal Cabrera in 2009.

65-97 makes for a long winter. And with the snow on its way soon the numbers the Indians produced in 2009 are hard to ignore. The simple math shows that the team pretty much earned its forgettable season. Although the numbers say they did underachieve.

In at bats, runs, hits, RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, BB, SO, AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS the Indians finished in the top 5 in the American League in only doubles and walks.

In the simple pitching catergories of ERA, CG, SHO, SV, IP, H, ER, HR, BB and SO they only ranked in the top 10 in the AL in complete games. And that was only because Cliff Lee had a few before he crossed leagues.

Regression was the key word with nearly all of the key players.

Here is a look at the OPS of the Indians (who are still around) in 2008/2009:

Kelly Shoppach: .865/.734

Asdrubal Cabrera: .713/.799

Jhonny Peralta: .804/.690

Grady Sizemore: .876/.788

Shin-Soo Choo: .946/.883

Travis Hafner (2004-09): .993/1.003/1.097 (AL Leading)/.837/.628/.826

Andy Marte: .583/.693

Jamey Carroll: .700/.695

And, the FIP’s:

Cliff Lee: 2.83/3.25

Rafael Perez: 3.22/4.81

Rafael Betancourt: 4.40/3.75

Jensen Lewis: 4.59/5.18

Aaron Laffey: 4.88/4.54

Fausto Carmona: 4.89/5.36

Jeremy Sowers: 5.05/4.77

The hitters, other than Asdrubal Cabrera all made a turn for the worse in 2009. That turn downward was actually pretty significant in each of the cases other than Carroll’s. Hafner pretty much has been sinking for too long now and is just weighing down the payroll. He does actually have some value, but he is the one guy who comes furthest from maximizing his skills.

The lower trending can’t continue during the 2010 season. As Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera have now joined Grady Sizemore as potential year in and year out All-Stars there is reason for hope if they can seemingly be surrounded by a cast who can get the job done at a decent clip.

The dropping FIP numbers are not as frustrating as the dropping OPS totals. That is because with the hitters there are plenty of good bats in the lineup and they just are not performing as well as they can. With the pitching, it was bad in 2008 and in 2009 it got worse. There is little to suggest that there are numerous long term fixes in house right now. And they did even less to prove that in 2009 in most cases than in 2008.

Now that the season has ended the numbers are shining more brightly and they do not look good for the Tribe. Although the stats look pretty hideous, there is no hiding from them now.

The 2009 Cleveland Indians did not struggle because of a poor lineup. The clear weakness of the team was the pitching staff in general. Actually, the lineup was better than average. But, it still wasn’t great. Some of the things the Indians did do just above league average were OPS, Runs, Home Runs, wOBP and numerous others. They were rarely elite in any hitting catergory, but for a 65-97 team they were able to generate enough offense to stay in most contests.

Really, the only thing the Indians were “elite” in this season was getting hit by pitches. This is actually becoming a trend since they have recently consistently been placing among the highest in the league in this category.

2009: 81 HBP, 1st in MLB

2008: 103 HBP, 1st in MLB

2oo7: 80 HBP, 4th in MLB

2004: 78 HBP, 4th in MLB

The real reason the Indians have been “elite” at this is because of the high tendency of guys like Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko to lean in on the plate and get plunked.

Over the years it is not really a good sign if the only thing the Indians have consistenly been among the league leaders in is being hit by pitches. I guess it isn’t a bad thing, but it doesn’t really take any skill and is somewhat of a lucky stat.

I guess looking at the bright side would be at least we get guys on base. But actually doesn’t getting hit by more pitches increase the chance that a key player could be injured?

Here are the wOBP’s from last year of projected Indians regulars for 2010:

Choo: .389

Hafner: .355

Cabrera: .354

Sizemore: .343

LaPorta: .327

Marson: .326

Brantley: .311

Valbuena: .308

Peralta: .304

Those numbers are actually pretty pathetic. The much maligned Hafner and much praised Cabrera had nearly identical numbers. Beloved Grady Sizemore had a wOBP just four points higher than former OF Ben Francisco.

So, while the offense is clearly farther ahead of the defense, which is ahead of the pitching, it still is not in great shape. Shin-Soo Choo was definitely the main man for the Tribe in 2009 and there will need to be a few players joining him well above the league average before the team becomes a powerhouse again.

On the negative side the Indians have been a high volume strikeout team over the years and this most likely will continue with Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta and Shin-Soo Choo regularly in the lineup.

The strikeouts really aren’t a huge factor as people make them out to be. It hurts guys like Sizemore and Peralta because of their low BABIP. But, Asdrubal Cabrera and Choo have extremely good BABIP’s. Actually, Choo’s was extraordinary. He is now one of the most underappreciated stars in the game and pretty unknown nationwide.

So, with the offense muddled in what is simply mediocrity and underperforming it is necessary for the pitching to get back on track or the offense needs to do something well other than getting beaned.

Most of the data about getting hit by pitches doesn’t correlate into success. But, the point is the Indians are not elite offensively at anything and thus need superb pitching to win. And the pitching was absolutely terrible. Their FIP finished only ahead of the Nationals, Brewers and Orioles.

The blame thus lies not just on the arms, but the bats.

When Manny Acta is filling out his staff he could definitely do Asdrubal Cabrera, Luis Valbuena and Jhonny Peralta a huge favor by hiring Omar Vizquel as an infield coach.

The longtime Indian shortstop is not signed for the 2010 season as of yet. He did have a surprising bounce back year with the Rangers in 2009 and has stated that he expects to keep playing because his legs feel good, it would certainly be a boost to the young middle infielders of the Indians if he came aboard.

Vizquel was a nice situational hitter with little pop but good speed on the bases. His main role on the squad was being downright sensational with the mitt.

The way he played the shortstop was position was in a word: smooth. He made plays look easier than they were and was so quick with his hands. He has drawn many comparisons from Indians fans especially to Cabrera because of their descent, Seattle Mariners roots, uniform number, switch hitting and low power/high speed skills.

Having Omar in the fold could help the entire infield become better. This would allow the young pitching staff to develop more quickly because of less balls getting through the infield.

In 2009 the Indians were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. They ranked just 26th out of 30 in Ultimate Zone Rating in MLB.

Unbeknownst to even the most diehard Indians fans, Jhonny Peralta was the best Indian defensively at shortstop last year. His UZR was 2.4 at SS in 41 games while Cabrera was -4.5 in 100 games and Valbuena was -0.9 in 28 games.

For 2010, Peralta is going to be at third, Cabrera will be a shortstop and Valbuena will man second. Their respective UZR’s at those positions in 2009 were -2.9 in 104 games, -4.5 in 100 games and -5.4 in 77 games.

These numbers need to improve to aid the young Indians staff. None of the probable Indians starters next year is a high volume strikeout pitcher so the ball will be put in play and it would benefit them greatly if the infield defense could improve.

Bringing back Mike Hargrove was not the right move for this team. But, having one of the most popular Indians in team history back on staff would really create some positive energy in 2010. Omar is not someone who should be overlooked by Manny Acta.

After a 65-97 season the Indians have faded into baseball abyss, a place where few teams other than the Royals and Pirates make their home long term.

Toiling at the bottom of the American League Central all summer long is old news as much has changed since Game 162 played out in Boston.

The culture needs a shift in Cleveland. The team needs an identity, something that can resonate with the fan base and build a contending cycle for the club.

The Mistake by the Lake (Browns) are a team who has consistenly failed in the NFL because they lack any form of continuity or talent evaluation. The Indians are currently sliding toward that catergory of franchise which lacks a face and a distinct leader who will not allow the team to sink to these horrible levels.

Grady Sizemore has to be the catalyst in the entire organizational 180. The campaign Sizemore had was the epitome of the 2009 season for the whole Cleveland Indians organization.

He got off to a chilling start and then was never able to get in a groove as the summer months moved along. Then he battled injuries and spent more than a fortnight on the disabled list until he ultimately was shut down for the season once the young ones were recalled from Buffalo.

After his monstrous 94 XBH 2006 season where he went .290/.375/.533 Sizemore has underachieved and has not put the team on his back like we all assumed he would. Sure, a lot of luck was on his side as his BABIP was .342 but Sizemore still has the skill set to achieve those numbers of 2006 again.

It says a lot about Sizemore when he has an 18 HR, .788 season and it is an enormous disappointment. But, it is clear that he regressed quite a bit in 2009. How much of that was due to injury remains to be seen. As a hitter his numbers all took a dive. His basestealing numbers and fielding ratings also took a plummet. He did not play like the franchise player that we know he is.

It is easy to see that Grady had a season to forget in 2009 and he has been somebody who everyone has steered clear of criticizing. Well, to get the team back to playing baseball in October Grady needs to bounce back and be “that guy” for the Indians. It is something we have all seen him do and know that is certainly attainable.

With his good looks and quiet natured profile he is the unsung superstar. But, the time has come for him to step forward and make the hardest step for a pro athlete. He needs to make the leap from star to legend. If not, his ticket out of Cleveland will most likely be in a midsummer trade in 2011 or 2012.

Grady Sizemore is the first piece in making our Indians an upper tier MLB franchise again. He has to turn his game back around and not let the losing continue.

The respect for Grady in the locker room is extremely high. The things he does for the team are special. His style is one of lead by example. That is a completely fine form of leadership although some people think leadership is all vocal. 24 sets the tone for the Indians and his actions going forward and his attitude will play a key role in how the team does. He has to go as hard as he can and bring the rest of the guys with him.

So much is asked of Sizemore yet he is someone we know who can do wonderful things. That is why we need to ask him to go farther than he has before. He has to manage the squad in the locker room and not let things slide out of control. His personality is not one of someone boastful and loud but he still commands respect with his presence and that is something he should use to his advantage.

 I believe new skipper Manny Acta needs to do something to light another fire under Grady. This spring they need to sit down and come up with a way Sizemore can bounce back individually and outwork the rest of the players to show them how hard even an established All-Star has to work to maintain his skills.

 The time for winning again in Cleveland is nearing and when the time comes Grady and the rest of his teammates need to be ready.

With the hiring of Manny Acta to be the new Indians manager one may wonder what the future does hold for the Indians.

The hiring process got a little muddled when the Astros and Indians got into a bidding war for Acta. The Indians ultimately won out because they offered a guaranteed third year. Indians fans may wonder why there is such a fuss over someone who posted just a 158-252 record as the skipper of the Washington Nationals.

What we as fans will never know is what Acta really did to win over the hearts of the Indians brass. We have learned how highly regarded in baseball circles he is and that is a huge factor in him getting the job.

The Indians hired a manager who is:

“A very solid, very patient guy,” said one National League scout. “I think it’s a good hire for Cleveland. I think the fans are going to like Manny. He’s a working-class guy.”

One scout said Acta might be a “tick” on the soft side and suggested a veteran bench coach would help him maintain discipline with the Indians.

“I think he’s a well-rounded baseball man,” said Mets GM Omar Minaya. “He has a way of communicating with players young and old. I thought he did a very good job with somewhat limited talent in Washington. I thought he had his players up and playing. He was accountable in good times and bad.”

In regards to handling the bullpen, one scout said: “I can’t say how he handles the bullpen because Washington’s bullpen was terrible. You couldn’t manage it.”

“He’s certainly deserving of being a manger, and he will be a manager again,” Nationals president Stan Kasten said Sunday morning when it became clear Acta was likely to land the Indians job. “Manny is so intelligent, and so articulate. And he’s very good with players. He’s very active. He was out there hitting fungos (while managing the Nationals). He has a lot going for him.”

Also, longtime Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox went out of his way to call in and recommend Acta for the job even though he was not asked to do so. His reasoning was that whenever his teams played the Nationals he noticed Acta was so well prepared and that he was a tough manager to face because his teams were ready.

He is described as a “stats guy” who places his highest value on OBP and OPS. Acta regularly mentioned things such as the reemergence of Fausto Carmona, the bullpen, Grady Sizemore’s place in the order and the enigma which is Jhonny Peralta in his introductory media session. These are all things Tribe fans want answers for and he pleased the crowd by being prepared for the questions. He also had answers when asked what he plans to do to make sure the team doesn’t start out as slow as it did under Eric Wedge.

Basically, all of the faults of Wedge were brought to light and Acta had potential soltions to the problems.

There still is an eerie feeling that Acta was the winner of this battle by default. John Farrell pulled his name from the running. Bobby Valentine didn’t do his research on the team and was lukewarm on the job in the first place. Torey Lovullo was the “next Eric Wedge” according to the fanbase.

The handling of a bullpen is probably the biggest thing that Acta needs to solidify to win over the hearts of Tribe fans. Well, obviously other than winning. He spoke highly of the group in his press conference and there is certainly hope that he will bring in the right staff to help get that area of the team righted.

Acta needs to pull the anchor out of the water and set the team back to sail. There are quite a few nice pieces all around in the organization and under his guidance it needs to come to fruition.

In reality he can’t fall much farther under the bus than Eric Wedge just did. Expectations are at an all time low entering the 2010 season and Acta really has little pressure to win now, but lots of pressure to develop players.

He will get a pass initially just because he is not the Atomic Wedgie, who is hated so widely in Ohio.

The cupboards are not bare in the Indians kitchen. Acta really is stepping into a good situation because of how anything he does will be looked at positively.

To many across the American baseball landscape the future of the Indians looks rather bleak. But, as this first doozy of an Acta quote reminds us, it is always okay to set your goals sky high.

“A big shot is a little shot who keeps shooting,” said Acta. “I’m ready to keep shooting.”

I hope to see you at the top, Manny.

Lastly, happy belated birthday (10-27) from Waves of Arms to this beast.

Earlier today 40 year old Manny Acta was chosen as the 40th manager in the history of the Cleveland Indians.

Acta, my 2nd overall choice, signed a contract which runs through 2012 with a team option for 2013.