Lady Luck is in Cleveland

Now that our Cavaliers have joined the Browns (5 picks for 1) and Indians in the arms of good fortune it is great to have hope in Cleveland. Sure, the odds are long that Kyrie Irving or Phil Taylor lead their teams to titles anytime soon but relevancy is pretty much a sure thing. And that’s really all I want as a Cleveland sports fan.

Much has been made thus far about the ridiculous start by the Indians. They lead the league by a wide margin with their +59 run differential. Even not counting their 19-1 romp over Vin Mazzaro and the Royals, it still is good as any in the league.

Pundits across America and the baseball world are quick to point out that the Indians will come back to Earth. And you know what, of course they will. Is it really that great of a discovery to tell us fans that the Indians won’t win 106+ games this year? I hope every so called genius journalist out there pats themselves on the back right now to give themselves credit for their earth shattering discovery.

Stat geeks are obsessed with everything regressing to the mean. Oh my god, the world is going to end because Justin Masterson has an ERA and FIP below his projections. Holy cow, Jack Hannahan and Asdrubal Cabrera have hit a few bombs. Whoever thought those guys would hit one out? Travis Hafner is hitting over .340. How is that possible?

Well you know what, the Indians don’t have anybody producing ridiculous eye-popping numbers. Sure, their record is better than their assembled talent but that is due to the RANDOMNESS of sports. Nobody is so far above their expected numbers that things look out of whack. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore lead the team with 6 home runs. Think about that. The leading home run hitter on the team is on pace to hit barely over 20. The team just has a solid all around lineup with 8 players who will reach double digit bombs.

When any small market (non-NYY or BOS) team plays well, the whole world is keen to jump on the “this can’t keep up” bandwagon. What few other than myself realize is sports is one of the most random things in the world. Shin-Soo Choo hit .300 last year. In the stat guy world that means he should have gotten a hit exactly 3 times out of every 10 at bats. If he went 2 for 10 one series and 4 for 10 the next something was up.

Take a look at nearly any story about sports. There is always some trend or streak, hot or cold, that a player or team is on that is the entire focus of the story.

The Indians team really is not overachieving on the field in terms of individual numbers. Trust me. And if you think they do, take a look at the porous numbers Santana and Choo have posted and that more than levels out any overachievers you may think you find.

Where the overachieving is lies in the luck. It lies in all the lucky late inning heroics the Tribe so often accumulate. That is unsustainable. The performances the team puts together in innings 1-8 are.

Not exaggerating at all, I could list millions of random numbers in sports that happen. How did Peja and Jason Terry shoot 15-16 from 3 in Game 4 against LA? It was a random sample. How did Jose Bautista just hit 3 home runs against Minnesota the other day? If Ray Allen is a 40% career three point shooter, how can one explain his 57.1% in the playoffs this year? How did Chris Bosh score 30 points against the Bulls in Game 1 when he averaged fewer than 19 during the season? Understand?

The definition of any athletic event is “runs.”

Every single basketball game recap I have ever read at one point mentioned some type of run one of the teams went on to win/lose the game.

Whatever statistical measure you think is best for every sport should 100% reflect the standings if everything goes to the mean.

What I realize is that the greatness/sadness of sports is the randomness of the games. If everything goes to how the numbers say, then shouldn’t the world end if Shaq makes two straight free throws?

Seriously, how come the internet doesn’t light up when that happens? It is the same thing that occurs, a completely unexpected result.

The Indians are extremely likely to wind up between 83-87 wins. And it will have little correlation to next year because baseball is such a random game. So many little plays and the times you make them determine the winner. How come the team with the most hits doesn’t win every time? It matters what type they were and when they happened.

Every single year a small market team succeeds and the world screams they are phony.  The destiny of sports is some teams have really fortunate years where things just go your way, and as the Minnesota Twins have found out some years have everything go wrong. Minnesota has been unfortunate this year, albeit terrible, while the Indians have been fortunate. But, are you really telling me Minnesota is going to play .308 baseball all year while the Tribe will play .658?

How come the playoffs in every sport don’t go exactly the way the regular season standings say they should? How did UConn win it all?

I just don’t understand the point of the nation to dump on us small market fans when something goes right. Celebrate these Cleveland Indians because in the baseball world, who the heck knows what will happen when this fortunate runs out.

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