Dad

Tribe record: 75-87

Place in the Central Division: 4th

Team MVP: Nick Swisher

HR leader: Swisher

Most improved: Jason Kipnis

Bust: Jason Giambi

Starting rotation at the end of the season: Masterson, Jimenez, McAllister, Carrasco, Kazmir

Staff ace: Masterson

All-Star(s): Swisher

Comments: None

World Series: San Francisco 4, Detroit 2

Ben

Tribe record: 88-74

Place in the Central Division: 2nd

Team MVP: Michael Bourn

HR leader: Mark Reynolds

Most improved: Lonnie Chisenhall

Bust: Brett Myers

Starting rotation at the end of the season: Masterson, McAllister, Kazmir, Bauer, Carrasco

Staff ace: Wouldn’t call him an ace, but I’ll go with Masterson.

All-Star(s): Bourn, Cabrera, Pestano

Comments: I think Chisenhall will have a huge year. I like Carrasco a lot as well and think he will come up midway through the season after getting some work at Columbus. We will make the playoffs.

World Series: Washington 4, Los Angeles 2

Tom

Tribe record: 88-74

Place in the Central Division: 2nd

Team MVP: Carlos Santana

HR leader: Mark Reynolds

Most improved: Ubaldo Jimenez

Bust: Zach McAllister

Starting rotation at the end of the season: Masterson, Jimenez, Myers, Kazmir, Carrasco

Staff ace: Jimenez

All-Star(s): Santana, Jimenez, Cabrera

Comments: None

World Series: Detroit 4, Washington 3

John

Tribe record: 82-80

Place in the Central Division: 3rd

Team MVP: Michael Brantley

HR leader: Mark Reynolds

Most improved: Brantley

Bust: Kipnis

Starting rotation at the end of the season: Masterson, Jimenez, Myers, McAllister, Bauer

Staff ace: Bauer

All-Star(s): Swisher, Cabrera

Comments: A massive turnaround. The club is seen as a major challenger for the Tigers heading into 2014.

World Series: Tampa Bay 4, Cincinnati 1

Going back and reading Jay’s Fire Everyone! – The Mission piece from late in the 2009 season brought up a few points to me that shows some definite breaks in the foundation of something in the Cleveland Indiansorganization.

Let’s first off realize that we’re really not competing directly with 25 teams in baseball. Our battle each and every season is to outperform the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins.

Here is the one striking thing that Jay had to say that really stuck with me (keep in mind his data is through the 2009 season):

The five teams in our division have secured seven playoff spots over the past six seasons, and we only got one of those seven spots. This, despite the fact that the Twins are no better off than the Indians. This, despite the Tigers and White Sox squandering their financial edges with massive, ill-conceived contracts. This, despite the Royals not being under competent management as of yet. We should have had two or three of those seven spots, and we should have competed for four or five of them — that is a reasonable goal for this club. The fact that we didn’t is an organizational failure, plain and simple.

Moving forward with Jay’s point that from 2004-2009 the Indians snatched just one playoff spot and only truly competed once more, in 2005. And let’s remember that Jay was kind in his snatching of 2004-2009 because 2002 and 2003 were seasons in which the Indians didn’t compete one iota. Therefore, from 2002-2009 we took just one playoff berth and competed just twice in eight seasons.

Taking a look at the Indians competition numbers since the 2007 ALCS loss isn’t very rosy.

Let’s say the Indians slip out of contention this year, as it seems they will, and we again don’t compete for a berth. That would be the fifth season in a row that we’ve completely failed to compete in what is arguably one of the easiest divisions in baseball to compete in.

I dug around for data on every team in MLB to find out who else has not competed even once in the past five seasons.

The criteria I used were if a team had any first or second place finishes or any playoff berth I deemed that a competitive season. There of course some things that I personally used an override on though. The 2011 Indians finished second but were 15 games out. That is not competitive.

Of the 30 teams in baseball, the following are the ones who, like us, have not had any competitive seasons since our 2007 ALCS berth. I listed their order of finish in their respective division from 2008-2012 in that order.

Baltimore: 5, 5, 5, 5, 2

Cleveland: 3, 4, 4, 2, 3

Houston: 3, 5, 4, 6, 6

Kansas City: 4, 4, 5, 4, 5

Seattle: 4, 3, 4, 4, 4

Toronto: 4, 4, 4, 4, 5

*All 2012 places are updated entering play on Friday.

Oakland, Pittsburgh and Washington had not truly “competed” from 2008 until this season. Oakland did finish 2nd in the AL West in 2010 but finished 9.0 games out.

I have a relatively high amount of confidence that these three clubs all will remain in contention through the end of the season. If they don’t though, then lump whichever falls off into this group. Technically, Baltimore could be grouped with this trio but they could lose just a couple games and already be in fifth. The other teams are much more likely to stay in contention. Toronto is on the other end than Baltimore and a winning week could see them take second. We’ll see what happens with those two.

Alright, we’re left with six teams who haven’t given their fans anything yet (Bal, Cle or Tor could still contend this year though) to be happy about in terms of their final result since the 2007 season.

Houston, Kansas City and Seattle actually should be labeled as trainwrecks because they’ve been completely hopeless each and every season in this study.

Baltimore and Toronto face significantly bigger hurdles than Cleveland and the “trainwrecks” as they play in the much more difficult AL East. Whether it’s fair to tell them or not, but they should face slightly less expectations due to their circumstances and it’s unfortunate for them.

Cleveland cumulatively has a much higher overall record than Houston, Kansas City or Seattle through the past five years but that doesn’t mean we were much more successful. Take a look at what happens at the game threads around this place each September as the Indians drift into obscurity. It’s a clear example of failure in the organization when in our division, as Jay said, we should at least obtain the resources to clearly compete for 4-5 years out of 7.

Since the “glory days” ended in 2001 we have directly competed just twice in eleven seasons and secured just a single playoff berth. And in the past five seasons we’re just one of four (or more, depending if you add in the AL East teams or if any of the “contenders” this year fall off) teams who has failed to have a relevant September.

It doesn’t take a math expert to see that 2 of 11 or 0 of 5 pails in comparison to 4/5 of 7.

Look, the standards I set for this weren’t that high. I only wanted one competitive season from five (far from what Jay asked for) and the Indians didn’t live up to it.

Let’s change gears now from the fact that the Indians have been in rough shape since Kenny Lofton left the roster for the last time.

The Indians made a big move last summer in acquiring Ubaldo Jimenez in a surprising trade with the Colorado Rockies. It’s been noted everywhere and by everyone, but it is true that the Indians likely need to contend by 2013 or they will have to live through some rough years as the farm system is bleak and many core players won’t be with the organization anymore.

Chris Antonetti showed last summer that he was going for it with this group and three races left in their window. After the trade last year the Indians bombed by losing 11 of 12 to their direct competitor, Detroit, and finished 15 back. This year the first half went alright for AL Central standards but yet again the team is slipping and it doesn’t seem likely they’ll stick in the race through 162 games. I’m a bit bullish though about the team and think there still is a fairly good chance they can make a surge.

That may leave the team with just 2013 as a season to be a serious contender. Many Indians fans lamented the lack of big moves Antonetti made at the 2012 trade deadline. It was frustrating to watch as the pieces we wish we could have acquired, and were reported on by the LGT staff, either were moved or, as in most cases, they were simply kept by their current club.

The moves Antonetti did make weren’t upgrades to the core of the team. The upgrades were to the fringe guys. While they might help out a bit, they’re completely underwhelming in the push for the division title as we need upgrades to the starting lineup and rotation, not to AAA or the bench. No offense to Lillibridge or Anderson.

Adam wrote a great piece outlining many of the Indians potential pieces in deals if Antonetti was interested in going for it with this current core. Let’s take a look at some key words in his summary and as the Indians situation ends up being pretty straight forward.

The bulk of the Indians assets come in the form of low-ceiling pitching arms. Whether they be starters in Akron or Columbus, or bullpen arms scattered throughout the system, the Indians have a wealth of arms that “could” be interesting to the right buyer (or seller). None of these guys are trade “headliners,” and I doubt the Indians will be able to put together a Ubaldo-like “headline” trade. They already did that last year. The lack of development in the pre-Brad Grant positional prospects really costs the Indians. Guys like Weglarz, Fedroff, Crowe, Mills, Bellows, etc., should be tradable assets now, but all are marginal players or gone at this point.

The Indians just really couldn’t put together any packages that any other club valued highly enough to part with an impact player which can be pretty much defined as one of the people covered in the wonderful “Trade Target” series the LGT guys worked on.

The Indians were trying to bring in both players who could help now, and for the future. Ubaldo was in that boat last year and the goal this year was to just bring in anyone who could do the same but was less of a “name.”

Paul Cousineau of The DiaTribe comments on the failure of the Indians to even put together a package for a pair of players who could have done the job for us but were pretty well know to the average baseball fan:

Most notable was the trade between the Cubs and the Braves that sent LHP Paul Maholm (under club control through next year) and 4th OF/LHP masher Reed Johnson to Atlanta, as those two players would have filled the Indians’ needs – short-term and long-term – pretty neatly by adding to the rotation for today and tomorrow and by upgrading from the troika currently roaming around LF. And while the cost for the Braves looks like a couple of Minor-League arms (and one injured one at that), let’s realize that Atlanta gave up a 21-year-old RHPin Aroldys Vizcaino that throws in the upper-90s that ranked #62 on Kevin Goldstein’s pre-2011 prospect list who had already made it to MLB as a 20-year-old last year. Though Vizcaino may end up in the bullpen and while I realize that he’s been hurt and doesn’t figure to contribute until next year…yeah, that young, fireballing arm is still something that the Indians don’t have unless you’re talking about them giving up a Carlos Carrasco (who is 4 years older than Vizcaino and not under club control for as long) for that duo.

Remember the idea that the Indians lacked the ammo (in terms of prospects) to make the additions that they may have felt were necessary?

Yeah, that even applies to a package that could have netted them Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson…

Johnson fills a double need for the Indians. He hits right handed and he plays left field while also having the versatility to play center in small doses and right.

Interestingly enough, his contract ends after the 2013 season. He has an 119 OPS+ in the 2012 season.

Maholm’s story is fairly similar. He fills our biggest need as a “front of the rotation” starter as our staff has been embarrassingly bad in 2012. While his 107 ERA+ this year doesn’t really back that “front of the rotation” description I just laid out, on the current version of the Indians he’d likely be our ace if he kept that up.

His contract has a team option that will in all likelihood be picked up in 2013 as well.

Those two pieces being added to the Atlanta Braves were the type of thing that the Indians still couldn’t even get as our prospects aren’t valued enough to get that done.

As this 2012 squad barrels through the rest of this year and into 2013 it’s pretty unclear whether this group is going to accomplish anything. Without something drastic brought in to the rotation and at least one impact bat added it’s going to be a tough ride.

I guess I’m not sure whether Antonetti is going to keep going for it as his Ubaldo trade showed he would or whether he’ll start shipping out some core players this winter to upgrade the farm system.

And let’s not even get started on thinking about what the 2014 season may look like as the fairly barren farm system will be called upon heavily to replace many of the current men running out each day for the Tribe.

The only thing I’m going to keep hoping for though is that we’ll be sitting around late in 2017 saying the next five years went as poorly as 2008-2012 because that would be inexcusable at best.

JOHN

Tribe record: 88-74

Team MVP: Carlos Santana

HR leader: Santana

Games for Sizemore: 106

W’s for Jimenez: 13

Cy Young finish of Masterson: 7th

All-Star(s): Santana, Justin Masterson

Comments: Carlos Santana blows up

DAD

Tribe record: 75-87

Team MVP: Justin Masterson

HR leader: Choo

Games for Sizemore: 81

W’s for Jimenez: 10

Cy Young finish of Masterson: 10th

All-Star(s): None (Editor’s Note: This is impossible.)

Comments: Unless the hitting improves it will be a long year.

BEN

Tribe record: 86-76

Team MVP: Justin Masterson

HR leader: Choo

Games for Sizemore: 25

W’s for Jimenez: 12

Cy Young finish of Masterson: 4

All-Star(s): Masterson, Santana

Comments: 2nd in the division. Not too confident we will be good but I think Kipnis will have a huge year and Asdrubal will be down.

TOM

Tribe record: 84-78

Team MVP: Jason Kipnis

HR leader: Hafner

Games for Sizemore: 91

W’s for Jimenez: 8

Cy Young finish of Masterson: 7th

All-Star(s): Kipnis, Masterson

Comments: COLT MCCOY

Where are all my Tribe friends going? They’re disappearing faster than Chris Perez’ career.

I’m a frequent poster in the Let’s Go Tribe game threads. As the gap between Detroit and the pretenders has grown gigantic, the drop in comments per game has gone from an average of somewhere around 700 to 30 per game. It’s more lonely than being Alex Rodriguez in the Yankee clubhouse. And yet I watch even more than I did a few weeks ago.

It’s hard for people to watch once other things get rolling such as the Browns. It’s really tough to watch when the race is over. And of course this one is done.

I just can’t give up on these guys though. The more guys who get injured and have their season ended prematurely the more I’m attached. I can’t turn away from those Fausto Carmona or Chris Perez outings that should make me want to cringe.

I love this team. I want people to stick with them and be there with me until Game 162 is over. It’s fun to get to see the random new guys in the squad, but not exactly on the field. I laugh at some of the lineups that get thrown out there by the Indians and the opponents. One of the worst ones I’ve ever seen was the Minnesota Twins starting nine from tonight. Yes, you should laugh when you see that group. Joe Benson wrecked us tonight. What?!

I’m still sitting here uptight all throughout the game because .500 matters to me. It really means little overall but I will see the standings every day for months until next April. I want more W’s than L’s. It’s a race to get to the end with that 81st victory. The Indians absolutely should not get there. But these days baseball is even harder to predict that usual. The lineups are makeshift every day. A new Indian starter is hitting the DL every series.

And I’m fortunate to be sitting here cheering on my team in this mind game battle with myself chasing after this empty dream of 81 wins. The team has won many games in ways that aren’t sustainable. Remember all those walk-off wins at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario? Yep, don’t think you can rely on that happening in 2012.

This team is so flawed going into 2012. Chris Perez could completely ruin a potential 115 win team if he plays next year like he did this. And the Indians have the potential for 90 at best. Is Fausto Carmona going to break free from his inconsistent ways? Is the sun going to rise tomorrow?

Asdrubal Cabrera, while I admire him for sticking it out in the every day lineup, really tailed off in the past few weeks. He had a great season but really wore down. Again, if we were in the race right now this would be a huge problem.

There are a heck of a lot of Indians players who are going to be really hungry in 2012. Isn’t it inevitable that an Indian will win 2012 Comeback Player of the Year? Put some money on that, we’ll have the most candidates.

Justin Masterson, the should be unanimous team MVP, needs some help.

Let’s Go Tribe!

Take a good look at this.

As long as we don’t kick ourselves in the butt against Detroit, the Tribe really can easily make it to the postseason.

Look at that 11 game homestand coming up against SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, and OAKLAND. The majority of our remaining games are against AL Central teams with the only games against a top (NYY, BOS, TEX, TB) team oustide the division is a single series in Arlington.

Eventually, a run at Detroit is going to be made. Sure it would be huge to pummel them in the remaining 9 games against each other. That seems unlikely as 6 of them are in Detroit so I assume we’ll play 4-5 or 5-4 baseball against the Kitties.

That means the stretch to me that will determine if the Indians will waltz into October in only Manny Acta’s second season at the helm will be that 11 game homestand.

6-5 won’t do. I’m talking 8-3 or 9-2 baseball is going to have to happen because that is the best chance we have of making up significant ground. And yes, in the AL Central 3 games does feel daunting. When you’re only 58-57 there aren’t going to be too many stretches where you run off big winning streaks so let’s take advantage of the fortune of that homestand and the games in KC immediately following it.

In this playoff push it is imperative that we don’t follow course with the rest of our season. It started out so beautifully then the next period we were terrible.

So, let’s say that 11 game homestand goes great then it would basically negate that by bombing on a following road trip of 10 games to Chicago, Texas and Minnesota. Wait, that Twins series is a weekend. If the race is still on, I probably will have to make the 4 hour drive to Target to be honest.

Basically the Indians have treaded water thus far with that 58-57 mark. A monster run is not needed to make up 9 games or anything. We don’t need 90 W’s.

The other reason why I think the Tribe is in line for a serious run of progression is that players are going to be coming back.

Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Carrasco and Grady Sizemore (maybe) should all provide a nice boost whenever they make it back to full fitness.

We have significant room for improvement should a couple of those players find their form.

I really like the Tribe’s chances right now with the favorable schedule and the definite improvement boost coming from those guys. Also it is clear that Ubaldo Jimenez does give the team a lift. I felt the energy watching him Wednesday night.

There’s only one little issue that I really am super concerned about: the atrocious infield defense. I’m going to leave it at that.

All I know is it’s such an exciting feeling watching the every day drama unfold of a baseball season. The emotion changes every day and thinking all day at work about what is going to happen at night is really unique.

Let’s Go Tribe – take us into October.

 

On record as disliking our Ubaldo trade, due to the fact that we control him for just two more years (I wanted three) and the common knowledge that he is not really a trusted ace of a staff yet I’ve put it behind me and am excited about the Indians future.

My firm belief that the Tribe is not in contention for the AL Pennant still holds. They cannot match up with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers and won’t anytime soon.

But as every dream I have ends in an Indians World Series victory, that is not the only measure of success I hold my club to.

In the American League Central contention seems sure. In the next two seasons the Indians will be a factor. The current crop of teams is quite weak and every team has many flaws that will hold them back from any type of multiple 90+ win seasons in the near future.

Take a look at the AL East standings. If you moved Cleveland into the division right now we would be 5th out of 6 teams. And that would be with us playing our watered down AL Central heavy schedule. Aren’t you glad we aren’t in that division? The Rays are better than us. Yet they are double digit games down.

The obvious news on the mind of every Indians fan still is the big trade. The media probably gave the team a slight edge over the Rockies in terms of initial public support on who won it. Not that that matters one iota though.

But, the biggest factor to me in whether we win the trade or lose it will be how Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall turn out.

The team does now seem to have a crop of young, cheap pitchers in Jimenez, Masterson, Tomlin, Carrasco, Carmona, Huff, McAllister, Gomez and Barnes who can provide depth through the season and rival any rotation in the division.

The organization has solid depth throughout the farm on the pitching side, yet few young hitters have been groomed internally this decade. That is, until Kipnis and Chisenhall became the Indians “big deadline bats.”

The core of the Indians lineup in the future is going to be littered with names such as Hafner, Sizemore, Choo, Brantley, Santana and Cabrera. That is a completely guaranatee. They all of course may be in and out of the lineup based on contracts being up, injuries or trades. That stuff definitely can and will happen. But, it is clear that for the duration of their time in NE Ohio, they will be written into the lineup on a daily basis in permanent marker.

That group is solid, not spectacular. But, the main complaints of Tribe fans this year is our 5-9 batters. And that really is the case in our entire division. The lineups don’t have depth.

Let’s take a look at last night’s 5-9 in the lineup of our divison foes.

Detroit – Martinez, Peralta, Guillen, Avila, Betemit

Kansas City- Francouer, Giavotella, Moustakas, Escobar, Pina

Chicago – Quentin, Pierzynski, Beckham, De Aza, Morel

Minnesota – Kubel, Valencia, Young, Nishioka, Butera

Cleveland – LaPorta, Fukudome, Duncan, Kearns, Donald

I would rate the Indians 4th on that list ahead of Kansas City. But, with a group of the “Core 8″ listed earlier plus LaPorta/new guy that lineup depth is without a doubt the best in the Central.

Each guy in the group has his issue with something that at times holds him back. It will never happen where the group is all healthy and mashing together at the same time. The game is too volatile.

Let’s look at the factors each has to still overcome to be more consistent.

Brantley – isn’t a good enough leadoff hitter or a great defensive player

Cabrera – below average defensive shortstop

Choo – serious regression this year is a cause for concern, shaky defense but stellar arm

Sizemore – I could write all day, you guys figure it out

Hafner – cannot play over 110 games

Santana – hasn’t become the true force yet that we expect, but I still see it happening

Kipnis/Chisenhall – play some D, kids

But, Lonnie and Jason can give our team a new dimension.

Contention in the form of 90-95 win seasons for 5 years is not happening. But, an AL Central run of 85-90 wins for a few years surely is within our grasp.

Clearly, the Indians have a group of guys who can become a consistent upper level team in the division for the forseeable future. But, with a serious lack of development from one or both of Kipnis and Chisenhall things will really go downhill. We just traded two of our top four prospects and these guys were the other two.

A small organization like us needs solid futures from those players.

A run of October success cannot begin without staying above the Tigers, White Sox, Twins and Royals. I will always measure our success by making it to October because getting there guarantees you have a shot at some crazy stuff happening.

We’ve bagged a core of players who isn’t going to be a favorite in the AL, or MLB, anytime soon yet that group easily can become a favorite in the Central.

Our franchise can be wildly successful by making it to the playoffs at a much higher rate than our division foes. This is a time where the division is wide open so here’s to Ubaldo and Justin carrying the Tribe to those banners – I hope.

Relatively, let’s just get our boys into October and then I believe with enough of those chances eventually a ring can be won.

I only hope Kipnis and Chisenhall realize how vital they are to our future.

With a new “ace” added to our staff, the thought of Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson anchoring our rotation in top form must scare the rest of the weak AL Central. To be fair, it scares me even more.

Jimenez is actually under control for just TWO seasons beyond 2011. That leaves little time for the Indians to reshape their roster because our window of contention is likely to shut once Ubaldo moves on after 2013 (or maybe luckily 2014).

The root of this bold and disastrous decision is that the Indians falsely think they are a contender this season most likely because of a very lucky 30-15 start. Since that start the Indians have been one of the worst teams in MLB at just 23-36.

The means of our market give us just short windows to contend before we must turn the roster over again and build it back up again.

With the numerous trades made in the past few years to bring back hordes of prospects behind us, the years of waiting for those boys to make it to Cleveland was finally beginning to happen.

After those trades were made, a new cycle hit us Indian fans. We now had to wait as the team was built down with the trades as the prospects acquired built up our Farm System. Those prospects are important to a small market club. They matter so much because they are controlled so cheaply for a long time. And with baseball being a game where a single player isn’t able to make a gigantic impact on his team compared to some other sports like football or basketball, it makes sense for the Tribe to build a large group of “numbers” down on the Farm.

The organization is still going to be in flux while this process of contention is supposedly going to happen. Asdrubal Cabrera is a star. Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore, who have 1 and 0/1 years left with the team are not really likely to be part of the future. Chisenhall, Santana, Kipnis, Brantley, LaPorta and Donald/Phelps are all still relatively raw and not yet close to being able to carry the meat of the lineup without proven veterans around them.

With question marks surrounding the future of Hafner, Sizemore and potentially even Shin-Soo Choo I find it hard to see a monster batting order developing. Over half of our starting position players for 2012 (Santana, Brantley, Kip, Chis, LaPorta) are unproven youngsters still, although Santana is still going to get himself figured out. Those guys will be in the lineup going forward next year and beyond. That group doesn’t really inspire me to plan on booking trips to Cleveland in October. And with those men still developing, the Indians still are going to have to develop multiple players to get looks in Center and DH in the near future.

The strength of a legitimate contending Indians team will be our strength in numbers with a consistent 1-9 lineup lacking of mega-stars such as Adrian Gonzalez or Jose Reyes type players. I struggle to see a group of players going forward that I know can form a core in the lineup. I’d bet on Asdrubal, Santana and (probably) Choo at the moment. What is Lonnie’s legitimate ceiling, .280 with 15 bombs? How about Kipnis? Where is our young 30+ home run potential prospect?

Someone tell me.. Anyone?

Still waiting…..

Our roster must be built by a group of inexpensive youngsters mixed in with some low priced veterans who are overlooked and on short contracts. Sure, Jimenez is cheap but his time here gives us just a short window where we need so much to go well. Realistically, Sizemore and Hafner are probably two of our four best hitters when healthy. And let’s not forget our offense is pretty timid with those guys in the Starting 9.

Basically, the Indians are in the middle of a building project. They are an average American League team at best with an average future ahead of them in the short and long term.

I must admit, an article by noted Royals lover Rany Jazayerli on Grantland.com brought an important point to mind.

The key to our franchise is the ability to develop talent. As Rany points out, our roster is pretty much made up of players plucked from other teams by route of trade. We haven’t developed a keeper of a first round pick since CC Sabathia although I hope Chisenhall changes that. Finally in 2009 and 2010 picks Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, we are were looking at the first backbone of an Indians developed pitching staff since…. the 50′s?

Ubaldo Jimenez is not a sure thing as an ace. White and Pomeranz are even farther from being top-tier starters. But, the contractual control over those two star arms, to me, outweighs the TWO plus years we acquired Jimenez for.

Our business model for winning should be all about developing cheap young talent. It pains fans to trade away players such as Sabathia, Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee. It should hurt a ton, we loved those guys. But, the smart way thing for the franchise to do is develop stars and then turn them around for pieces the minute somebody overvalues them and thus overpays.

We should not be buying stars. We need to work harder than other clubs to develop stars so we get them on the cheap. When they grow older and expensive let’s get a haul for them.

The Indians aren’t that close to serious contention. Sure, we’re close to contention right now. But, does anyone really buy 53-52 with our 25 becoming a force for the forseeable future?

The Indians flaws run long and deep. Ubaldo Jimenez can’t fix the giant problem himself.

Carrasco. Masterson. Hurricane Perez. Tomlin. Santana. Marson. Asdrubal. Lonnie. Kipnis. LaPorta. Brantley. Fukudome. Choo. Sizemore. Hafner. Carmona.

We developed just Tomlin, Lonnie, Kipnis and Carmona. Every other major contributor to the roster has been traded to the team. Could our team dominate the AL Central if we could develop players as well as we could trade for them? ABSOLUTELY

In the long run, the Tribe’s lack of internal player development is going to cause them to stay in the bottom half of the American League since we can’t consistently build this model and win.

Whether White and Pomeranz would have lived up to billing isn’t the whole point. The Indians are better off with a little less quality (say Pomeranz is a number 3 and White is an 8th inning guy – which are both their floor’s) but having more quantity instead of more quality (say Jimenez is an ace – which is debatable) and less quantity.

GM Chris Antonetti and President Mark Shapiro should continue to try and develop stars like Sabathia, line up his replacement in house, and then ship him out for a bounty. No matter how financial savvy it is to add Jimenez, we aren’t going to be able to keep up if we adopt the model of forgoing player development in favor of making blockbuster trades where we get the star and relying on winning all of our trades to build the roster.

If the star pitcher we gave up our two best arms for was more of a sure thing such as Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez (and no, neither was available and neither should have been) then I’m all for it. Jimenez just doesn’t yet have the background to prove it was worth it to make this rash of a decision.

I find the logic behind the notion of the Indians being a “contender” completely irrational right now. With Sizemore, Hafner and LaPorta (get real people LaPorta fans, he is nothing more than Ryan Garko) likely not a part of the next contention cycle we have a long ways to go before we win.

The core of the next AL Central Champion Indian clubs likely needs to be some home grown talent. Every team who wins a division with our budget has to do business that way. It’s the nature of the game.

The Indians aren’t close to a 3 in 5 year Central Division title run. Jimenez doesn’t change that. White or Pomeranz may not have either, but they gave us a better window to accomplish it.

The misconceptions about fans who are for this trade lie in this:

1) the Indians are contenders

2) our young hitters are going to carry us

3) Jimenez is staying in Cleveland beyond 2013 (or 14 at best)

I would really have loved the trade if we were actually closer to contention. And I don’t mean contention like the Twins the past few seasons. I meant actual contention for the whole thing. I also would have been in favor should we have had control through 2015 or if we had included perhaps either Kipnis/Chis plus White/Drew.

We are closer to building a team through pitching than hitting, in my humble opinion. With Masterson, Carrasco, Tomlin joined by these youngsters I felt a safer future. We need an identity and I was hoping to see this one through. The pen could have consisted of Hurricane, Pestano, Sipp, Smith, Rafael. Toss White and Drew into the picture and I liked that mix. Plus, the group at Buffalo is pretty legit.

If Jimenez lives up to his early 2010 form of course this will be a great day for Indians fans.

Ultimately though, I see the trade as neither costing the Indians a ring or getting them one as the flaws of the roster around either Jimenez or White/Pomeranz will end up being too gaping.

Now that our Cavaliers have joined the Browns (5 picks for 1) and Indians in the arms of good fortune it is great to have hope in Cleveland. Sure, the odds are long that Kyrie Irving or Phil Taylor lead their teams to titles anytime soon but relevancy is pretty much a sure thing. And that’s really all I want as a Cleveland sports fan.

Much has been made thus far about the ridiculous start by the Indians. They lead the league by a wide margin with their +59 run differential. Even not counting their 19-1 romp over Vin Mazzaro and the Royals, it still is good as any in the league.

Pundits across America and the baseball world are quick to point out that the Indians will come back to Earth. And you know what, of course they will. Is it really that great of a discovery to tell us fans that the Indians won’t win 106+ games this year? I hope every so called genius journalist out there pats themselves on the back right now to give themselves credit for their earth shattering discovery.

Stat geeks are obsessed with everything regressing to the mean. Oh my god, the world is going to end because Justin Masterson has an ERA and FIP below his projections. Holy cow, Jack Hannahan and Asdrubal Cabrera have hit a few bombs. Whoever thought those guys would hit one out? Travis Hafner is hitting over .340. How is that possible?

Well you know what, the Indians don’t have anybody producing ridiculous eye-popping numbers. Sure, their record is better than their assembled talent but that is due to the RANDOMNESS of sports. Nobody is so far above their expected numbers that things look out of whack. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore lead the team with 6 home runs. Think about that. The leading home run hitter on the team is on pace to hit barely over 20. The team just has a solid all around lineup with 8 players who will reach double digit bombs.

When any small market (non-NYY or BOS) team plays well, the whole world is keen to jump on the “this can’t keep up” bandwagon. What few other than myself realize is sports is one of the most random things in the world. Shin-Soo Choo hit .300 last year. In the stat guy world that means he should have gotten a hit exactly 3 times out of every 10 at bats. If he went 2 for 10 one series and 4 for 10 the next something was up.

Take a look at nearly any story about sports. There is always some trend or streak, hot or cold, that a player or team is on that is the entire focus of the story.

The Indians team really is not overachieving on the field in terms of individual numbers. Trust me. And if you think they do, take a look at the porous numbers Santana and Choo have posted and that more than levels out any overachievers you may think you find.

Where the overachieving is lies in the luck. It lies in all the lucky late inning heroics the Tribe so often accumulate. That is unsustainable. The performances the team puts together in innings 1-8 are.

Not exaggerating at all, I could list millions of random numbers in sports that happen. How did Peja and Jason Terry shoot 15-16 from 3 in Game 4 against LA? It was a random sample. How did Jose Bautista just hit 3 home runs against Minnesota the other day? If Ray Allen is a 40% career three point shooter, how can one explain his 57.1% in the playoffs this year? How did Chris Bosh score 30 points against the Bulls in Game 1 when he averaged fewer than 19 during the season? Understand?

The definition of any athletic event is “runs.”

Every single basketball game recap I have ever read at one point mentioned some type of run one of the teams went on to win/lose the game.

Whatever statistical measure you think is best for every sport should 100% reflect the standings if everything goes to the mean.

What I realize is that the greatness/sadness of sports is the randomness of the games. If everything goes to how the numbers say, then shouldn’t the world end if Shaq makes two straight free throws?

Seriously, how come the internet doesn’t light up when that happens? It is the same thing that occurs, a completely unexpected result.

The Indians are extremely likely to wind up between 83-87 wins. And it will have little correlation to next year because baseball is such a random game. So many little plays and the times you make them determine the winner. How come the team with the most hits doesn’t win every time? It matters what type they were and when they happened.

Every single year a small market team succeeds and the world screams they are phony.  The destiny of sports is some teams have really fortunate years where things just go your way, and as the Minnesota Twins have found out some years have everything go wrong. Minnesota has been unfortunate this year, albeit terrible, while the Indians have been fortunate. But, are you really telling me Minnesota is going to play .308 baseball all year while the Tribe will play .658?

How come the playoffs in every sport don’t go exactly the way the regular season standings say they should? How did UConn win it all?

I just don’t understand the point of the nation to dump on us small market fans when something goes right. Celebrate these Cleveland Indians because in the baseball world, who the heck knows what will happen when this fortunate runs out.

With the Indians finally opening a season off on a sizzling start, I’m unsure what to believe in right now. After such a long off-season which really for me was all about a fresh start for the team I have been ecstatic about just everything Indians related thus far.
There are few things worse than waiting 6 months for the season to start and then falling to 3-9 or such as the season opens. You feel like the season is done, especially if you really are a non-contender to begin with. That’s why, this start is extra special to us Tribe fans. We really have no expectations and for our hearts to be taken this early yet again would have been brutal.

The Indians haven’t even been relevant into Mid-May the past couple seasons so we have literally been in 4th or 5th every minute of the season lately. This start should at least be able to have the team energized and rearing to go for a couple months. Sure, it isn’t likely the Indians keep this torrid start up but it isn’t about that right now.

The most important thing right now is having a baseball season to enjoy. And trust me, few Indians fans found any joy in the season since 2007.

We want some players to be able to cling to. We want a new era to begin immediately. The Central really is not that good.

Let’s go get that thing!

The coolest new thing about the 2011 Indians is that the new combo of road uniforms and hats is my all-time favorite MLB uniform. I am a huge fan of how simple and plain they are yet the navy blue/red writing is such a strong color. Really, I LOVE these uniforms. Kudos to the Front Office for getting this right.
Now, on to the Fraase’s 2011 Cleveland Indian predictions.

John

Record: 73-89

Most HR: Carlos Santana

Most W: Fausto Carmona

AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals

All-Stars: Santana

Prospect Breakout: Drew Pomeranz

Disappointment: Mitch Talbot

Team MVP: Carlos Santana

World Series: Phillies over White Sox

Dad

Record: 62-100

Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo

Most W: Fausto Carmona

AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals

All-Stars: Chris Perez

Prospect Breakout: Josh Tomlin

Disappointment: Matt LaPorta

Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

World Series: Phillies over Yankees

Ben

Record: 71-91

Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo

Most W: Carlos Carrasco

AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians

All-Stars: Shin-Soo Choo

Prospect Breakout: Lonnie Chisenhall

Disappointment: Matt LaPorta

Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

World Series: Phillies over Yankees

Tom

Record: 75-87

Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo

Most W: Fausto Carmona

AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Royals

All-Stars: Shin-Soo Choo

Prospect Breakout: Michael Brantley

Disappointment: Jack Hannahan

Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo

World Series: Phillies over Yankees

 

 

Let’s Go Tribe!