Now that our Cavaliers have joined the Browns (5 picks for 1) and Indians in the arms of good fortune it is great to have hope in Cleveland. Sure, the odds are long that Kyrie Irving or Phil Taylor lead their teams to titles anytime soon but relevancy is pretty much a sure thing. And that’s really all I want as a Cleveland sports fan.
Much has been made thus far about the ridiculous start by the Indians. They lead the league by a wide margin with their +59 run differential. Even not counting their 19-1 romp over Vin Mazzaro and the Royals, it still is good as any in the league.
Pundits across America and the baseball world are quick to point out that the Indians will come back to Earth. And you know what, of course they will. Is it really that great of a discovery to tell us fans that the Indians won’t win 106+ games this year? I hope every so called genius journalist out there pats themselves on the back right now to give themselves credit for their earth shattering discovery.
Stat geeks are obsessed with everything regressing to the mean. Oh my god, the world is going to end because Justin Masterson has an ERA and FIP below his projections. Holy cow, Jack Hannahan and Asdrubal Cabrera have hit a few bombs. Whoever thought those guys would hit one out? Travis Hafner is hitting over .340. How is that possible?
Well you know what, the Indians don’t have anybody producing ridiculous eye-popping numbers. Sure, their record is better than their assembled talent but that is due to the RANDOMNESS of sports. Nobody is so far above their expected numbers that things look out of whack. Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and Grady Sizemore lead the team with 6 home runs. Think about that. The leading home run hitter on the team is on pace to hit barely over 20. The team just has a solid all around lineup with 8 players who will reach double digit bombs.
When any small market (non-NYY or BOS) team plays well, the whole world is keen to jump on the “this can’t keep up” bandwagon. What few other than myself realize is sports is one of the most random things in the world. Shin-Soo Choo hit .300 last year. In the stat guy world that means he should have gotten a hit exactly 3 times out of every 10 at bats. If he went 2 for 10 one series and 4 for 10 the next something was up.
Take a look at nearly any story about sports. There is always some trend or streak, hot or cold, that a player or team is on that is the entire focus of the story.
The Indians team really is not overachieving on the field in terms of individual numbers. Trust me. And if you think they do, take a look at the porous numbers Santana and Choo have posted and that more than levels out any overachievers you may think you find.
Where the overachieving is lies in the luck. It lies in all the lucky late inning heroics the Tribe so often accumulate. That is unsustainable. The performances the team puts together in innings 1-8 are.
Not exaggerating at all, I could list millions of random numbers in sports that happen. How did Peja and Jason Terry shoot 15-16 from 3 in Game 4 against LA? It was a random sample. How did Jose Bautista just hit 3 home runs against Minnesota the other day? If Ray Allen is a 40% career three point shooter, how can one explain his 57.1% in the playoffs this year? How did Chris Bosh score 30 points against the Bulls in Game 1 when he averaged fewer than 19 during the season? Understand?
The definition of any athletic event is “runs.”
Every single basketball game recap I have ever read at one point mentioned some type of run one of the teams went on to win/lose the game.
Whatever statistical measure you think is best for every sport should 100% reflect the standings if everything goes to the mean.
What I realize is that the greatness/sadness of sports is the randomness of the games. If everything goes to how the numbers say, then shouldn’t the world end if Shaq makes two straight free throws?
Seriously, how come the internet doesn’t light up when that happens? It is the same thing that occurs, a completely unexpected result.
The Indians are extremely likely to wind up between 83-87 wins. And it will have little correlation to next year because baseball is such a random game. So many little plays and the times you make them determine the winner. How come the team with the most hits doesn’t win every time? It matters what type they were and when they happened.
Every single year a small market team succeeds and the world screams they are phony. The destiny of sports is some teams have really fortunate years where things just go your way, and as the Minnesota Twins have found out some years have everything go wrong. Minnesota has been unfortunate this year, albeit terrible, while the Indians have been fortunate. But, are you really telling me Minnesota is going to play .308 baseball all year while the Tribe will play .658?
How come the playoffs in every sport don’t go exactly the way the regular season standings say they should? How did UConn win it all?
I just don’t understand the point of the nation to dump on us small market fans when something goes right. Celebrate these Cleveland Indians because in the baseball world, who the heck knows what will happen when this fortunate runs out.
With the Indians finally opening a season off on a sizzling start, I’m unsure what to believe in right now. After such a long off-season which really for me was all about a fresh start for the team I have been ecstatic about just everything Indians related thus far.
There are few things worse than waiting 6 months for the season to start and then falling to 3-9 or such as the season opens. You feel like the season is done, especially if you really are a non-contender to begin with. That’s why, this start is extra special to us Tribe fans. We really have no expectations and for our hearts to be taken this early yet again would have been brutal.
The Indians haven’t even been relevant into Mid-May the past couple seasons so we have literally been in 4th or 5th every minute of the season lately. This start should at least be able to have the team energized and rearing to go for a couple months. Sure, it isn’t likely the Indians keep this torrid start up but it isn’t about that right now.
The most important thing right now is having a baseball season to enjoy. And trust me, few Indians fans found any joy in the season since 2007.
We want some players to be able to cling to. We want a new era to begin immediately. The Central really is not that good.
Let’s go get that thing!
The coolest new thing about the 2011 Indians is that the new combo of road uniforms and hats is my all-time favorite MLB uniform. I am a huge fan of how simple and plain they are yet the navy blue/red writing is such a strong color. Really, I LOVE these uniforms. Kudos to the Front Office for getting this right.
Now, on to the Fraase’s 2011 Cleveland Indian predictions.
John
Record: 73-89
Most HR: Carlos Santana
Most W: Fausto Carmona
AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals
All-Stars: Santana
Prospect Breakout: Drew Pomeranz
Disappointment: Mitch Talbot
Team MVP: Carlos Santana
World Series: Phillies over White Sox
Dad
Record: 62-100
Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo
Most W: Fausto Carmona
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals
All-Stars: Chris Perez
Prospect Breakout: Josh Tomlin
Disappointment: Matt LaPorta
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo
World Series: Phillies over Yankees
Ben
Record: 71-91
Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo
Most W: Carlos Carrasco
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians
All-Stars: Shin-Soo Choo
Prospect Breakout: Lonnie Chisenhall
Disappointment: Matt LaPorta
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo
World Series: Phillies over Yankees
Tom
Record: 75-87
Most HR: Shin-Soo Choo
Most W: Fausto Carmona
AL Central: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Royals
All-Stars: Shin-Soo Choo
Prospect Breakout: Michael Brantley
Disappointment: Jack Hannahan
Team MVP: Shin-Soo Choo
World Series: Phillies over Yankees
Let’s Go Tribe!
Everyone knows how much the Indians ripped off the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Carlos Santana-Casey Blake trade. What few around the game have noticed is that the team nearly stole as much from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Mark DeRosa trade.
While Perez has been with the Indians for over a year now he has been stuck in the 8th inning role for a good portion of his time in Our Favorite Nine. While the Indians kept hanging on to the Kerry Wood experiment, Perez was muddled in a role he had outgrown long ago. Wood, due to his veteran status and contract, was still given the role of closer even though it was obvious that the job was basically going to be Perez’s for the future.
This made the situation a tab bit awkward since the team was out of contention the entire time and didn’t have the guts to pay Wood his massive salary to pay the 8th inning. It was yet another classic case of the team being ignorant instead of going with the logical move by thrusting Perez into the role that was destined to be his.
When Wood finally was shipped out of town to the New York Yankees Perez took off.
In one of the most amazing performances in Indians history, Perez has allowed an earned run in just 1 of his past 29 appearances, totaling 29.2 innings. Opponents have slugged just .194 off him and he has allowed only 15 hits, albeit walking 15 batters. Check out the rest of the filthy stretch here.
For the season he has amassed an ERA of just 1.84, but his FIP is 3.64 which still rates very high. He brings mainly a 95 mph heater and slider to the bump and is primarily a flyball/strikeout pitcher, which is probably a good thing considering how porous the Indians infield defense has been this year.
At just 25, Perez is expected to finally lock up the back end of the bullpen just as Santana is going to be a rock in the middle of the order.
He has allowed only 4 bombs this year in 58.2 innings so he is avoiding the thing that ruins closers, giving up late inning home runs.
In an era when few Indians players have really separated themselves from the pack or made a name for themself around the league, Perez is firmly on track to do just that. By this time next year Perez will be joined by Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana as players who will be feared by more than just the American League Central.
After a horrendous start to his MLB career in 2009, Carlos Carrasco is finally back. The big youngster has spent the equivalent of two full seasons in AAA ball so he now is primed to show Manny Acta what he can bring to the rotation this September.
The former Philadelphia Phillie prospect struggled a little earlier in the season at Columbus but then after missing time with a forearm injury has come back with a hot stretch leading up to his call up.
In his four starts last year and one this year, not much can be learned yet about Carrasco. So, taking a look at his minor league numbers we can determine whether he really can succeed in Manny Acta’s world.
The audition Carrasco will get this September is one he needs to take advantage of because other than Fausto Carmona, nobody is 100% guaranteed a spot in the 2011 rotation. Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot likely will also be there but things could change.
Carlos struggled to the tune of a 2.28 WHIP and a 2.42 HR/9 in his limited action with the big club in 2009. Those numbers are awful yet they will not stick once Carrasco settles down in his role on the Indians.
His inability last season to really do anything right did not impact his standing within the organization at all. He was expected to pitch in the minors against this season and that is what he did. He nearly beat out incumbent David Huff for a spot in the opening day rotation.
It actually would have been a great thing if he did since Huff pretty much caused Acta a ton of frustration this year.
Overall though, Carrasco needs to avoid a repeat of his miserable 2009 performance.
Being 23 now he must begin to show his maturity as a pitcher with a solid month here where he is going to pitch every 5 days for the month. His history at the AAA level shows he is someone who avoids giving up the longball and can nearly whiff a batter per inning.
Clearly he can ascend to the Indians 2-3 spot for a couple years in the starting rotation. The opportunity is there for him now to grasp that role but he needs to finish off the year in Cleveland like he did with the Clippers.
In the grand scheme of life it really is pretty irrelevant who wins the battle for fourth place in the 2010 American League Central but Manny Acta is pushing his team hard to avoid the embarrassment of finishing in such a position.
With all of the baffling things that have happened so far this year, likely the most concerning is how Trevor Crowe has somehow batted 5th multiple times in the batting order. Crowe is someone who really doesn’t merit consideration to bat in top five of a AAA lineup so when this happened in Cleveland it was just another sign that shows how awful things have really been.
At the beginning of the year there was certainly rotational depth with people like Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers and Carlos Carrasco waiting in the wings ready to pounce on any opportunity to be that 6th starter. Yet, the trio has combined to make just five total starts, all by Laffey, and it seems they all have somehow been passed over in favor of others.
The misery that is David Huff seems to be falling in line with the path Sowers has taken as Acta has developed little patience with his struggles. Their relationship seems to be somewhat similar thus far to the one Jhonny Peralta had with Eric Wedge.
Down the stretch it is great to see Josh Tomlin and Jeanmar Gomez emerging as potential depth in the rotation although their early success does truly mean little.
Michael Brantley has had a little resurgence lately as it seems he is finally settling down into his new found role.
Whether the team can hop on Shin-Soo Choo’s back and overtake the Royals is yet to be seen. If they do they likely can find solace in being possibly the only Cleveland pro sports team to not finish last in its division in the upcoming or current season!
The shipping of 3B Jhonny Peralta to division rival Detroit was one that I met with nothing more than a yawn when I heard of it.
The move is nothing short of lateral for the Tigers as Peralta realistically has little value in the last two months unless he hits like he did in 2005.
While the Tigers have been trotting out random patchwork players in their infield lately the nabbing of Peralta from Cleveland likely will add half a victory to their team this year at most.
Peralta has regressed significantly as a hitter since his glorious 2005 season in which he posted an .885 OPS with 24 bombs at a ripe 23.
That had many fans thinking about forgetting about the beloved Omar Vizquel. But, sadly, Peralta was never able to replicate his peak year of 2005 again.
During the years he should have continued his ascent to permanent All-Star status from 2006-2010 he has piled up just a .738 OPS with an average of just 15 home runs per season.
His development took a hit and he never was able to earn that middle of the order position that he looked destined to snatch.
The frustrating thing about Jhonny for Indians fans is how Peralta rarely showed any hustle or a fun personality. It hardly ever looked like he enjoyed playing the game or that he wanted to be a long term fit in Cleveland.
The perceived attitude of Peralta took an even bigger hit as the saga of his move to third base, which had been long rumored, finally unfolded in 2009.
Former skipped Eric Wedge and Peralta didn’t see things the same too often so their was an occasional hissy fit thrown by Peralta. Overall, the man’s popularity in Cleveland was always behind at least 3-4 other players in the lineup and I feel that did bother him.
He never was truly taken in by the fans and loved. And just as The Former King needs to be loved (and he WAS) the same goes for Peralta. And I think he could have been but it was tough to love him with his grim face and lack of emotion all the time.
There was absolutely no chance the Indians were going to pick up his $7 million option for 2011 so the move opens up third base for yet another stint for Andy Marte possibly show the team something.
Yet I really see no reason for the team to give him another shot. Why has Jordan Brown never gotten one shot to play while Marte continues to get stint after stint? I think it is time to let Jared Goedert and his 1.029 OPS in Columbus get a few at bats in Cleveland. There is nothing to lose by doing so.
The trade is a low risk one for the Tigers since Peralta likely will have little impact on the team but he is bumping one of their AAAA players out of the lineup and they really won’t have to pay him much other than the $250,000 buyout he is owed at the end of the year.
They also aren’t giving up a hot prospect in minor league lefty Giovanni Soto. The youngster is quite a ways from being in the bigs as his stuff doesn’t even touch 88 that often so he needs to develop down on the farm.
Peralta’s 2010 season has been quite odd as he has become a very fly ball dominant hitter as he has lifted 46% of balls into the air while his career high before this year was just 35%. His ground ball rate also has dipped from 50% in 2009 to 34% this season. His HR/FB% also has dropped from a high of 18% in his breakout year in 2005 to just 5.6% thus far in 2010.
The trade removes another signifcant piece of the Indians roster who had been there for multiple years.
Overall though, the trade is one that is unlikely to have any sort of significant impact on any pennant race. Most likely it will be forgotten by just about everybody in a few weeks.
